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On Fundamentals And Exchange Rates: A Casselian Perspective

  • Ronald MacDonald
  • Ian W. Marsh

Using an expanded version of the purchasing-power-parity condition we construct simultaneous equation models for three key exchange rates which incorporate meaningful long-run equilibrium relationships and complex short-run dynamics. We show that fully dynamic out-of-sample forecasts from these models are capable of significantly outperforming those of a random walk model over horizons as short as 3 months, and that they are also more accurate than the vast majority of professional forecasts. © 1997 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology

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File URL: http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/003465397557060
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Article provided by MIT Press in its journal The Review of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 79 (1997)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 655-664

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Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:79:y:1997:i:4:p:655-664
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  1. Chinn, Menzie D. & Meese, Richard A., 1995. "Banking on currency forecasts: How predictable is change in money?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1-2), pages 161-178, February.
  2. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 1993. "Long-run purchasing power parity during the recent float," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 181-192, February.
  3. Charles Engel, 1992. "Can the Markov Switching Model Forecast Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 4210, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Francis X. Diebold & Javier Gardeazabal & Kamil Yilmaz, 1993. "On cointegration and exchange rate dynamics," Working Papers 93-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  5. Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233.
  6. Davutyan, Nurhan & Pippenger, John, 1985. "Purchasing Power Parity Did Not Collapse during the 1970's," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(5), pages 1151-58, December.
  7. Cumby, Robert E. & Modest, David M., 1987. "Testing for market timing ability : A framework for forecast evaluation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 169-189, September.
  8. Adler, Michael & Lehmann, Bruce, 1983. " Deviations from Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(5), pages 1471-87, December.
  9. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1994. "A Survey of Empirical Research on Nominal Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4865, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Clements, Michael P. & Mizon, Grayham E., 1991. "Empirical analysis of macroeconomic time series : VAR and structural models," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 887-917, May.
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