On Fundamentals And Exchange Rates: A Casselian Perspective
Using an expanded version of the purchasing-power-parity condition we construct simultaneous equation models for three key exchange rates which incorporate meaningful long-run equilibrium relationships and complex short-run dynamics. We show that fully dynamic out-of-sample forecasts from these models are capable of significantly outperforming those of a random walk model over horizons as short as 3 months, and that they are also more accurate than the vast majority of professional forecasts. © 1997 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 79 (1997)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://mitpress.mit.edu/journals/|
|Order Information:||Web: http://mitpress.mit.edu/journal-home.tcl?issn=00346535|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Adler, Michael & Lehmann, Bruce, 1983. " Deviations from Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(5), pages 1471-87, December.
- Francis X. Diebold & Javier Gardeazabal & Kamil Yilmaz, 1993.
"On cointegration and exchange rate dynamics,"
93-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Chinn, Menzie D. & Meese, Richard A., 1995. "Banking on currency forecasts: How predictable is change in money?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1-2), pages 161-178, February.
- Engel, Charles, 1994.
"Can the Markov switching model forecast exchange rates?,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 36(1-2), pages 151-165, February.
- Charles Engel, 1992. "Can the Markov Switching Model Forecast Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 4210, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Charles Engel, 1991. "Can the Markov switching model forecast exchange rates?," Research Working Paper 91-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel and Andrew K. Rose., 1995.
"A Survey of Empirical Research on Nominal Exchange Rates,"
Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers
C95-051, University of California at Berkeley.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1994. "A Survey of Empirical Research on Nominal Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4865, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 1993. "Long-run purchasing power parity during the recent float," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 181-192, February.
- Cumby, Robert E. & Modest, David M., 1987. "Testing for market timing ability : A framework for forecast evaluation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 169-189, September.
- Clements, Michael P. & Mizon, Grayham E., 1991. "Empirical analysis of macroeconomic time series : VAR and structural models," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 887-917, May.
- Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233.
- Davutyan, Nurhan & Pippenger, John, 1985. "Purchasing Power Parity Did Not Collapse during the 1970's," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(5), pages 1151-58, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:79:y:1997:i:4:p:655-664. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Anna Pollock-Nelson)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.