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On Fundamentals And Exchange Rates: A Casselian Perspective

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  • Ronald MacDonald
  • Ian W. Marsh

Abstract

Using an expanded version of the purchasing-power-parity condition we construct simultaneous equation models for three key exchange rates which incorporate meaningful long-run equilibrium relationships and complex short-run dynamics. We show that fully dynamic out-of-sample forecasts from these models are capable of significantly outperforming those of a random walk model over horizons as short as 3 months, and that they are also more accurate than the vast majority of professional forecasts. © 1997 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Suggested Citation

  • Ronald MacDonald & Ian W. Marsh, 1997. "On Fundamentals And Exchange Rates: A Casselian Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 655-664, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:79:y:1997:i:4:p:655-664
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1994. "A Survey of Empirical Research on Nominal Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4865, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Engel, Charles, 1994. "Can the Markov switching model forecast exchange rates?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 151-165.
    3. Cumby, Robert E. & Modest, David M., 1987. "Testing for market timing ability : A framework for forecast evaluation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 169-189, September.
    4. Davutyan, Nurhan & Pippenger, John, 1985. "Purchasing Power Parity Did Not Collapse during the 1970's," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 1151-1158.
    5. Diebold, Francis X & Gardeazabal, Javier & Yilmaz, Kamil, 1994. " On Cointegration and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(2), pages 727-735, June.
    6. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 1993. "Long-run purchasing power parity during the recent float," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 181-192.
    7. Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233.
    8. Clements, Michael P. & Mizon, Grayham E., 1991. "Empirical analysis of macroeconomic time series : VAR and structural models," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 887-917, May.
    9. Chinn, Menzie D. & Meese, Richard A., 1995. "Banking on currency forecasts: How predictable is change in money?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 161-178.
    10. Adler, Michael & Lehmann, Bruce, 1983. " Deviations from Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(5), pages 1471-1487, December.
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