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Heterogeneity within the euro area: New insights into an old story

Author

Listed:
  • Valérie Mignon

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Virginie Coudert
  • Cécile Couharde

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Carl Grekou

Abstract

We assess cross-country heterogeneity within the eurozone and its evolution over time by measuring the distances between the equilibrium exchange rates' paths of member countries. These equilibrium paths are derived from the minimization of currency misalignments, by matching real exchange rates with their economic fundamentals. Using cluster and factor analyses, we identify two distinct groups of countries in the run-up to the European Monetary Union (EMU), Greece being clearly an outlier at that time. Comparing the results with more recent periods, we find evidence of rising dissimilarities between these two sets of countries, as well as within the groups themselves. Overall, our findings illustrate the building-up of macroeconomic imbalances within the eurozone before the 2008 crisis and the fragmentation between its member countries that followed.
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  • Valérie Mignon & Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde & Carl Grekou, 2019. "Heterogeneity within the euro area: New insights into an old story," Post-Print hal-02176110, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02176110
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    5. Carl Grekou & Cécile Couharde & Valérie Mignon, 2021. "On the desirability of the West African monetary union," EconomiX Working Papers 2021-11, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    6. Coudert, Virginie & Couharde, Cécile & Grekou, Carl & Mignon, Valérie, 2020. "Heterogeneity within the euro area: New insights into an old story," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 428-444.
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    8. Claire Giordano, 2021. "How frequent a BEER? Assessing the impact of data frequency on real exchange rate misalignment estimation," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(3), pages 365-404, July.
    9. Saulius Jokubaitis & Dmitrij Celov, 2022. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the EU: A Regional-Sectoral Look through Soft-Clustering and Wavelet Decomposition," Papers 2206.14128, arXiv.org.
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    JEL classification:

    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis

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