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Stocks, Flows and Valuation Effects of Foreign Assets and Liabilities: Do they Matter?

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  • Alfredo Pistelli M.
  • Jorge Selaive C.
  • Rodrigo Valdés P.

Abstract

During the last few years, large holdings of foreign assets and liabilities along with an increasing relevance of the valuation effects—capital gains or losses—have characterized global financial integration. This paper presents an empirical assessment of the implications of stocks, flows and valuation adjustments in external crises, sovereign credit ratings and the long-run dynamics of real exchange rates (RER), in both industrial and developing economies. We find that foreign assets and liabilities are rather distinctive external holdings with different implications in the occurrence of an external crisis. Valuation adjustments have an impact on crises, although quantitatively not very large. Portfolio liabilities (particularly equity) increase the probability of current account reversals, while the likelihood of sudden stops increases with foreign direct investment assets. In the case of sovereign credit ratings, we find a noteworthy effect of the stock and flows of FDI liabilities on improvin sovereign ratings. Finally, as for the RER, gross assets and liabilities appear equally important, but components of external holdings have considerably different effects. While the cumulative current account is associated with real depreciation, the valuation effect is strongly linked with real currency appreciations in developing economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Alfredo Pistelli M. & Jorge Selaive C. & Rodrigo Valdés P., 2007. "Stocks, Flows and Valuation Effects of Foreign Assets and Liabilities: Do they Matter?," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 10(3), pages 19-44, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchec:v:10:y:2007:i:3:p:19-44
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    Cited by:

    1. Pablo Pincheira & Jorge Selaive, 2011. "External imbalance, valuation adjustments and real Exchange rate: evidence of predictability in an emerging economy," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines, vol. 26(1), pages 107-125, Junio.
    2. Davide Furceri & Stéphanie Guichard & Elena Rusticelli, 2011. "Episodes of Large Capital Inflows and the Likelihood of Banking and Currency Crises and Sudden Stops," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 865, OECD Publishing.
    3. Catão, Luis A.V. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2014. "External liabilities and crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 18-32.
    4. Rodrigo Caputo & Miguel Fuentes, 2012. "Government Spending and the Real Exchange Rate: a Cross - Country Perspective," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 655, Central Bank of Chile.
    5. Davide Furceri & Stéphanie Guichard & Elena Rusticelli, 2012. "Episodes of Large Capital Inflows, Banking and Currency Crises, and Sudden Stops," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 1-35, April.
    6. Rodrigo Caputo & Miguel Fuentes, 2013. "Real Exchange Rate Dynamics and Fiscal Policy from a Cross-Country Perspective," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Jordi Galí (ed.), Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance, edition 1, volume 17, chapter 4, pages 93-116 Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Joseph P. Joyce, 2018. "External balance sheets as countercyclical crisis buffers," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 305-329, April.

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