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Currency Misalignments and Growth: a New Look Using Nonlinear Panel Data Methods

  • Sophie Béreau
  • Antonia Lopez Villavicencio
  • Valérie Mignon

The aim of this paper is to investigate the link between currency misalignments and economic growth. Relying on panel cointegration techniques, we calculate real exchange rate (RER) misalignments as deviations of actual RERs from their equilibrium values for a set of advanced and emerging economies. Estimating panel smooth transition regression models, we show that RER misalignments have a differentiated impact on economic growth depending on their sign: whereas overvaluations negatively affect economic growth, real exchange rate undervaluations significantly enhance it. This result indicates that undervaluations may drive the exchange rate to a level that encourages exports and promotes growth.

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Paper provided by CEPII research center in its series Working Papers with number 2009-17.

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Date of creation: Sep 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2009-17
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  1. Roberto FRENKEL, 2004. "Real exchange rate and employment in Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 19(223), pages 29-52.
  2. Gilles Dufrenot & Valerie Mignon & Charalambos Tsangarides, 2010. "The trade-growth nexus in the developing countries: a quantile regression approach," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 146(4), pages 731-761, December.
  3. Sophie Béreau & Antonia Lopez Villavicencio & Valérie Mignon, 2008. "Nonlinear Adjustment of the Real Exchange Rate Towards its Equilibrium Value: a Panel Smooth Transition Error Correction Modelling," Working Papers 2008-23, CEPII research center.
  4. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Valérie Mignon & Sophie Béreau, 2009. "Robust estimations of equilibrium exchange rates within the G20: a panel BEER approach," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00634794, HAL.
  5. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Las crisis gemelas: las causas de los problemas bancarios y de balanza de pagos
    [The twin crises: Te causes of banking and balance of payments problems]
    ," MPRA Paper 13842, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Eitrheim, Oyvind & Terasvirta, Timo, 1996. "Testing the adequacy of smooth transition autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 59-75, September.
  7. De Gregorio, Jose, 1992. "Economic growth in Latin America," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 59-84, July.
  8. Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira, 2002. "Brazil's Quasi-Stagnation and the Growth cum Foreign Savings Strategy," International Journal of Political Economy, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 32(4), pages 76-102, January.
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