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Nonlinear Adjustment of the Real Exchange Rate Towards its Equilibrium Value: a Panel Smooth Transition Error Correction Modelling

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  • Sophie Béreau
  • Antonia Lopez Villavicencio
  • Valérie Mignon

Abstract

We study the nonlinear dynamics of the real exchange rate towards its behavioral equilibrium value (BEER) using a Panel Smooth Transition Regression model framework.We show that the real exchange rate convergence process in the long run is characterized by nonlinearities for emerging economies, whereas industrialized countries exhibit a linear pattern. Moreover, there exists an asymmetric behavior of the real exchange rate when facing an over- or an undervaluation of the domestic currency. Finally, our results suggest that the real exchange rate is unable to unwind alone global imbalances.

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  • Sophie Béreau & Antonia Lopez Villavicencio & Valérie Mignon, 2008. "Nonlinear Adjustment of the Real Exchange Rate Towards its Equilibrium Value: a Panel Smooth Transition Error Correction Modelling," Working Papers 2008-23, CEPII research center.
  • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2008-23
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrés González & Timo Teräsvirta & Dick van Dijk & Yukai Yang, 1910. "Panel Smooth Transition Regression Models," CREATES Research Papers 2017-36, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    2. Reitz, Stefan & Rülke, Jan & Stadtmann, Georg, 2012. "Nonlinear Expectations in Speculative Markets," Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62045, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Reitz, Stefan & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2012. "Nonlinear expectations in speculative markets – Evidence from the ECB survey of professional forecasters," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 1349-1363.
    4. Delatte, Anne-Laure & Gex, Mathieu & López-Villavicencio, Antonia, 2012. "Has the CDS market influenced the borrowing cost of European countries during the sovereign crisis?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 481-497.
    5. Cécile Couharde & Issiaka Coulibaly & Olivier Damette, 2011. "Misalignments and Dynamics of Real Exchange Rates in the CFA Franc Zone," EconomiX Working Papers 2011-28, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    6. Wu, Po-Chin & Liu, Shiao-Yen & Pan, Sheng-Chieh, 2013. "Nonlinear bilateral trade balance-fundamentals nexus: A panel smooth transition regression approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 318-329.
    7. Carrera, César, 2015. "Tracking exchange rate management in Latin America," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 35-41.
    8. Omay, Tolga & Öznur Kan, Elif, 2010. "Re-examining the threshold effects in the inflation-growth nexus with cross-sectionally dependent non-linear panel: Evidence from six industrialized economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 996-1005, September.
    9. Carrera, César, 2014. "Tracking the Exchange Rate Management in Latin America," Working Papers 2014-020, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    10. Andrea Fracasso & Giuseppe Vittucci Marzetti, 2014. "International R&D Spillovers, Absorptive Capacity and Relative Backwardness: A Panel Smooth Transition Regression Model," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1), pages 137-160, March.
    11. Couharde, Cécile & Coulibaly, Issiaka & Damette, Olivier, 2013. "Anchor currency and real exchange rate dynamics in the CFA Franc zone," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 722-732.
    12. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chiu, Yi-Bin, 2011. "Electricity demand elasticities and temperature: Evidence from panel smooth transition regression with instrumental variable approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 896-902, September.
    13. Gauvin, L. & McLoughlin, C. & Reinhardt, D., 2013. "Policy Uncertainty Spillovers to Emerging Markets - Evidence from Capital Flows," Working papers 435, Banque de France.
    14. Novella Maugeri, 2014. "Some Pitfalls in Smooth Transition Models Estimation: A Monte Carlo Study," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 44(3), pages 339-378, October.
    15. Lòpez-Villavicencio, Antonia & Mazier, Jacques & Saadaoui, Jamel, 2012. "Temporal dimension and equilibrium exchange rate: A FEER/BEER comparison," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 58-77.
    16. Sophie Béreau & Antonia López Villavicencio & Valérie Mignon, 2012. "Currency misalignments and growth: a new look using nonlinear panel data methods," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(27), pages 3503-3511, September.
    17. Saadaoui, Jamel, 2012. "Déséquilibres globaux, taux de change d’équilibre et modélisation stock-flux cohérente
      [Global Imbalances, Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Stock-Flow Consistent Modelling]
      ," MPRA Paper 51332, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Alexey Ponomarenko & Anna Rozhkova & Sergei Seleznev, 2017. "Macro-financial linkages: the role of liquidity dependence," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps24, Bank of Russia.
    19. Michel Aglietta & Virginie Coudert, 2015. "Currency Turmoil in an Unbalanced World Economy," Bankers, Markets & Investors, ESKA Publishing, issue 139, pages 46-57, November-.
    20. Mahmut Zortuk & Sinan Çeken, 2016. "Testing Environmental Kuznets Curve in the Selected Transition Economies with Panel Smooth Transition Regression Analysis," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 18(43), pages 537-537, August.
    21. Antonia López-Villavicencio & Valérie Mignon, 2009. "On Equilibrium Exchange Rates: Is Emerging Asia Different?," Working Papers 2009-38, CEPII research center.
    22. Novella Maugeri, 2010. "Money Illusion and Rational Expectations: New Evidence from Well Known Survey Data," Department of Economics University of Siena 606, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    23. Wang, Yu Shan, 2013. "Oil price effects on personal consumption expenditures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 198-204.
    24. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chiu, Yi-Bin, 2012. "The impact of real income on insurance premiums: Evidence from panel data," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 246-260.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Equilibrium exchange rate; BEER model; Panel smooth transition regression; Panel vector error correction model;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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