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Valuation Effects and External Adjustment: A Review

In: Current Account and External Financing

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  • Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas

    (National Bureau of Economic Research)

Abstract

This paper surveys the recent empirical and theoretical literature on valuation effects. The increase in cross-border holdings of financial assets opens the door to significant adjustments in a country's external position in response to fluctuations in asset and currency prices. Access to better data on net and gross international investment positions for a broad range of countries permits careful measurement of these “valuation effects”. We distinguish between predictable and unpredictable valuation effects, and argue that they play separate roles in the adjustment process (for better or for worse). Finally, we discuss theoretical conditions under which predictable valuation effects can arise in equilibrium
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Suggested Citation

  • Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2008. "Valuation Effects and External Adjustment: A Review," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Kevin Cowan & Sebastián Edwards & Rodrigo O. Valdés & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt- (ed.),Current Account and External Financing, edition 1, volume 12, chapter 6, pages 195-236, Central Bank of Chile.
    • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchsb:v12c06pp195-236
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Maurice Obstfeld, 2001. "International Macroeconomics: Beyond the Mundell-Fleming Model," NBER Working Papers 8369, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    7. Kollmann, Robert, 2006. "International Portfolio Equilibrium and the Current Account," CEPR Discussion Papers 5512, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ca’ Zorzi, Michele & Chudik, Alexander & Dieppe, Alistair, 2012. "Thousands of models, one story: Current account imbalances in the global economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1319-1338.
    2. Devereux, Michael B. & Sutherland, Alan, 2010. "Valuation effects and the dynamics of net external assets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 129-143, January.
    3. Ansgar Belke & Clemens Domnick, 2021. "Trade and capital flows: Substitutes or complements? An empirical investigation," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(3), pages 573-589, August.
    4. Konrad Sobanski, 2015. "Valuation Effect As A Determinant Of The International Investment Position In Central And Eastern European Economies," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 10(3), pages 151-164, September.
    5. Schröder, Marcel, 2019. "Valuation effects and risk sharing during the era of financial globalization," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 467-480.
    6. Oleg Itskhoki & Dmitry Mukhin, 2021. "Exchange Rate Disconnect in General Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(8), pages 2183-2232.
    7. Ashima Goyal & Vaishnavi Sharma, 2018. "Portfolio Composition and Valuation Effects in Emerging Market Economies," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(3), pages 307-330, July.
    8. Jean Pisani-Ferry & Jérémie Cohen-Setton, 2008. "Asia-Europe: the third link," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 352, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    9. Aleksejs Krecetovs & Pasquale Della Corte, 2016. "Macro uncertainty and currency premia," 2016 Meeting Papers 624, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Hobza, Alexandr & Zeugner, Stefan, 2014. "Current accounts and financial flows in the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 291-313.
    11. James Staveley-O'Carroll & Olena M. Staveley-O'Carroll, 2016. "Exchange Rate Targeting in the Presence of Foreign Debt Obligations," Working Papers 1604, College of the Holy Cross, Department of Economics.
    12. Agustín Bénétrix, 2009. "The anatomy of large valuation episodes," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(3), pages 489-511, October.
    13. Thierry Bracke & Martin Schmitz, 2011. "Channels of international risk-sharing: capital gains versus income flows," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 45-78, April.
    14. Devendra Kumar Jain & Rup Singh & Henali Kumar & Nikeel Kumar & Arvind Patel, 2022. "Why does currency denomination in external liabilities of small island developing states matter? Evidence from Fiji," Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 447-464, September.
    15. Staveley-O’Carroll, James & Staveley-O’Carroll, Olena M., 2018. "Exchange rate targeting in the presence of foreign debt obligations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 113-134.
    16. Javier Garcia-Cicco & Markus Kirchner & Julio Carrillo & Diego Rodríguez & Fernando Perez & Rocío Gondo & Carlos Montoro & Roberto Chang, 2017. "Financial and real shocks and the effectiveness of monetary and macroprudential policies in Latin American countries," BIS Working Papers 668, Bank for International Settlements.

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