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How Robust are Estimated Equilibrium Exchange Rates? A Panel BEER Approach

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  • Agnès Bénassy-Quéré
  • Sophie Béreau
  • Valérie Mignon

Abstract

This paper is concerned with the robustness of equilibrium exchange rate estimations based on the BEER approach for a set of both industrial and emerging countries. The robustness is studied in four directions, successively. First, we investigate the impact of using alternative proxies for relative productivity. Second, we analyze the impact of estimating the equilibrium equation on one single panel covering G20 countries, or separately for G7 and non-G7 countries. Third, we measure the influence of the choice of the numeraire on the derivation of bilateral equilibrium rates. Finally, we study the temporal robustness of the estimations by dropping one or two years from the estimation period. Our main conclusion is that BEER estimations are quite robust to these successive tests, although at one point of time misalignments can differ by several percentage points depending on the methodology. The choice of the productivity proxy is the most sensible one, followed by the country sample. In contrast, the choice of the numeraire and the time sample have a relatively limited impact on estimated misalignments.

Suggested Citation

  • Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Sophie Béreau & Valérie Mignon, 2008. "How Robust are Estimated Equilibrium Exchange Rates? A Panel BEER Approach," Working Papers 2008-01, CEPII research center.
  • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2008-01
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Sophie Béreau & Valérie Mignon, 2008. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates: a Guidebook for the Euro-Dollar Rate," Working Papers 2008-02, CEPII research center.
    2. Bénassy-Quéré, Agnès & Lahrèche-Révil, Amina & Mignon, Valérie, 2011. "World-consistent equilibrium exchange rates," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 12-32, June.
    3. De Gregorio, Jose & Giovannini, Alberto & Wolf, Holger C., 1994. "International evidence on tradables and nontradables inflation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 1225-1244, June.
    4. Menzie D. Chinn, 2000. "The Usual Suspects? Productivity and Demand Shocks and Asia–Pacific Real Exchange Rates," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(1), pages 20-43, February.
    5. Jose De Gregorio & Holger C. Wolf, 1994. "Terms of Trade, Productivity, and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 4807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Agnès Bénassy‐Quéré & Amina Lahrèche‐Révil & Valérie Mignon, 2008. "Is Asia Responsible For Exchange Rate Misalignments Within The G20?," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 46-61, February.
    7. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Pascale Duran-Vigneron & Amina Lahrèche-Révil & Valérie Mignon, 2004. "Burden sharing and exchange rate misalignments within the Group of Twenty," Post-Print hal-03550853, HAL.
    8. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde, 2009. "Currency Misalignments and Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging and Developing Countries," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 121-136, February.
    2. Parantap Basu & Yoseph Getachew, 2020. "Redistributive innovation policy, inequality, and efficiency," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 22(3), pages 532-554, June.
    3. Bineau, Yannick, 2010. "Renminbi's misalignment: A meta-analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 259-269, September.
    4. Kang-Soek Lee & Philippe Saucier, 2011. "Should the UK Join the Euro Zone? Evidence from a Synthetic OCA Assessment," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 8(1), pages 77-96, June.
    5. Piotr Roszkowski & Kamila Sławińska & Andrzej Torój, 2014. "BEER tastes better in a panel of neighbours. On equilibrium exchange rates in CEE countries," Collegium of Economic Analysis Annals, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, issue 34, pages 209-226.
    6. repec:zbw:bofitp:2009_013 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Christian K. Tipoy & Marthinus C. Breitenbach & Mulatu F. Zerihun, 2017. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Misalignments: The Case of Homogenous Emerging Market Economies," Working Papers 201769, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    8. Audrey Allegret, 2010. "Real exchange rate misalignments and economic performance for the G20 countries," Working Papers hal-04140932, HAL.
    9. Marcos Rocha & Fernando Barbi, 2011. "Determinantes doDesalinhamento Cambial: Uma análise comcointegração em painel," Anais do XXXVII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 37th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 112, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    10. Béreau, Sophie & Villavicencio, Antonia López & Mignon, Valérie, 2010. "Nonlinear adjustment of the real exchange rate towards its equilibrium value: A panel smooth transition error correction modelling," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 404-416, January.
    11. Korhonen, Iikka & Ritola, Maria, 2009. "Renminbi misaligned: Results from meta-regressions," BOFIT Discussion Papers 13/2009, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    12. repec:wsr:wpaper:y:2010:i:065 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Christian K. Tipoy & Marthinus C. Breitenbach & Mulatu F. Zerihun, 2016. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Misalignments: The Case of Homogenous Emerging Countries," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 66(4), pages 3-25, October-D.
    14. Razek, Noha H.A. & McQuinn, Brian, 2021. "Saudi Arabia's currency misalignment and international competitiveness, accounting for geopolitical risks and the super-contango oil market," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    15. Matteo Salto & Alessandro Turrini, 2010. "427 - Comparing alternative methodologies for real exchange rate assessment - Matteo Salto and Aless," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 427, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    16. Korhonen, Iikka & Ritola, Maria, 2009. "Renminbi misaligned : Results from meta-regressions," BOFIT Discussion Papers 13/2009, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    17. Oliver Hossfeld, 2010. "Equilibrium Real Effective Exchange Rates and Real Exchange Rate Misalignments: Time Series vs. Panel Estimates," Working Papers 2010.3, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Equilibrium exchange rate; BEER; Productivity; Panel cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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