IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

A multi-level panel STAR model for US manufacturing sectors

  • Dick van Dijk

    (Econometric Institute, Erasmus University Rotterdam, The Netherlands)

  • Dennis Fok

    (Econometric Institute, Erasmus University Rotterdam, The Netherlands)

  • Philip Hans Franses

    (Econometric Institute, Erasmus University Rotterdam, The Netherlands)

We introduce a multi-level smooth transition model for a panel of time series, which can be used to examine the presence of common nonlinear business cycle features across many variables. The model is positioned in between a fully pooled model, which imposes such common features, and a fully heterogeneous model, which allows for unrestricted nonlinearity. We introduce a second-stage model linking the parameters that determine the timing of the switches between business cycle regimes to observable explanatory variables, thereby allowing for lead-lag relationships across panel members. We discuss representation, estimation by concentrated simulated maximum likelihood and inference. We illustrate our model using quarterly industrial production in 19 US manufacturing sectors, and document that there are subtle differences across sectors in leads and lags for switches between business cycle recessions and expansions. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/jae.822
File Function: Link to full text; subscription required
Download Restriction: no

File URL: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca:80/jae/2005-v20.6/
File Function: Supporting data files and programs
Download Restriction: no

Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 20 (2005)
Issue (Month): 6 ()
Pages: 811-827

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:20:y:2005:i:6:p:811-827
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0883-7252/

Order Information: Web: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/jcatalog/subscribe.jsp?issn=0883-7252 Email:


References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Eric J. Bartelsman & Wayne Gray, 1996. "The NBER Manufacturing Productivity Database," NBER Technical Working Papers 0205, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1996. "Predicting U.S. recessions: financial variables as leading indicators," Research Paper 9609, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  3. Lee, Kevin, 1997. "Modelling economic growth in the UK: An econometric case for disaggregated sectoral analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 369-394, July.
  4. Marco Del Negro, 2000. "Asymmetric shocks among U.S. states," Working Paper 2000-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  5. Bidarkota Prasad V., 1999. "Sectoral Investigation of Asymmetries in the Conditional Mean Dynamics of the Real U.S. GDP," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(4), pages 1-12, January.
  6. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2004. "Business cycle phases in U.S. states," Working Papers 2003-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  7. Anderson, Heather M. & Vahid, Farshid, 1998. "Testing multiple equation systems for common nonlinear components," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 1-36, May.
  8. repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:3:p:437-83 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Paap, Richard & Franses, Philip Hans & van Dijk, Dick, 2005. "Does Africa grow slower than Asia, Latin America and the Middle East? Evidence from a new data-based classification method," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 553-570, August.
  10. Lee, Lung-Fei, 1995. "Asymptotic Bias in Simulated Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Discrete Choice Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(03), pages 437-483, June.
  11. Wolak, Frank A., 1989. "Local and Global Testing of Linear and Nonlinear Inequality Constraints in Nonlinear Econometric Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(01), pages 1-35, April.
  12. Forni, Mario & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1998. "Let's Get Real: A Factor Analytical Approach to Disaggregated Business Cycle Dynamics," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(3), pages 453-73, July.
  13. Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S119-36, Suppl. De.
  14. Engle, Robert F. & Issler, Joao Victor, 1995. "Estimating common sectoral cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 83-113, February.
  15. Cooper, Suzanne J, 1998. "Multiple Regimes in U.S. Output Fluctuations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(1), pages 92-100, January.
  16. Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain, 1993. "Simulation-based inference : A survey with special reference to panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1-2), pages 5-33, September.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:20:y:2005:i:6:p:811-827. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)

or (Christopher F. Baum)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.