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Aggregate and Regional Disaggregate Fluctuations

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  • Danny Quah

Abstract

This paper models fluctuations in regional disaggregates as a nonstationary, dynamically evolving distribution. Doing so enables study of the dynamics of aggregate fluctuations jointly with those of the rich cross-section of regional disaggregates. For the US, the leading state- regardless of which it happens to be- contains strong predictive power for aggregate fluctuations. This effect is difficult to understand if only aggregate disturbances affect aggregate business cycles through aggregate propagation mechanisms. Instead, a better picture might be one of a "wave" of regional dynamics, rippling across the national economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Danny Quah, 1996. "Aggregate and Regional Disaggregate Fluctuations," CEP Discussion Papers dp0275, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  • Handle: RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp0275
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    File URL: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/DP0275.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kruger, Jens J., 2005. "Structural change in U.S. manufacturing: Stationarity and intra-distributional changes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 387-392, June.
    2. George Hammond, 2004. "Metropolitan/non-metropolitan divergence: A spatial Markov chain approach," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 83(3), pages 543-563, July.
    3. Boldea, O. & Engwerda, J.C. & Michalak, T. & Plasmans, J.E.J. & Salmah, S., 2011. "A Simulation Study of an ASEAN Monetary Union (Replaces CentER DP 2010-100)," Discussion Paper 2011-098, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    4. Sergio Rey, 2014. "Rank-based Markov chains for regional income distribution dynamics," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 115-137, April.
    5. Donatella Baiardi & Carluccio Bianchi, 2010. "Un Indicatore di Attività Economica per la Lombardia e per le Province di Milano e Pavia," Quaderni di Dipartimento 130, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods.
    6. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2007:i:46:p:1-12 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Di Caro, Paolo, 2014. "Regional recessions and recoveries in theory and practice: a resilience-based overview," MPRA Paper 60300, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Gerald A. Carlino & Keith Sill, 1998. "The cyclical behavior of regional per capita incomes in the postwar period," Working Papers 98-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    9. Durlauf, Steven N. & Quah, Danny T., 1999. "The new empirics of economic growth," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 235-308 Elsevier.
    10. Redding, Stephen, 2002. "Specialization dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 299-334, December.
    11. Durlauf, Steven N. & Quah, Danny T., 1999. "The new empirics of economic growth," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 235-308 Elsevier.
    12. George W. Hammond & Eric Thompson, 2006. "Convergence and Mobility: Personal Income Trends in U.S. Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Regions," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 29(1), pages 35-63, January.
    13. Donatella Baiardi & Carluccio Bianchi, 2012. "Un Indicatore per la Lombardia e per le Province di Milano e Pavia (Nuova versione)," Quaderni di Dipartimento 158, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods.
    14. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Patrick Wai Yin Cheung & Erica Jiajia Ding, 2008. "Intra-metropolitan Office Price and Trading Volume Dynamics: Evidence from Hong Kong," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 11(2), pages 47-74.
    15. Iván Arribas & Francisco Pérez & Emili Tortosa-Ausina, 2014. "The dynamics of international trade integration: 1967–2004," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 19-41, February.
    16. Quah, Danny T., 1996. "Regional convergence clusters across Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 951-958, April.
    17. Engwerda, J. & Boldea, O. & Michalak, T. & Plasmans, J. & Salmah,, 2012. "A simulation study of an ASEAN monetary union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1870-1890.
    18. Temel, Tugrul, 2011. "Disaggregate fluctuations in the US farm output: Testing for convergence," MPRA Paper 31915, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Stefano Magrini & Margherita Gerolimetto & Hasan Engin Duran, 2011. "Distortions in Cross-Sectional Convergence Analysis when the Aggregate Business Cycle is Incomplete," Working Papers 2011_07, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".

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