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One Business Cycle and One Trend From(Many) Many Disaggregates

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Listed author(s):
  • Quah, D.

Abstract

Typical analyses of trends and cycles take as given some (one) observable economic variable in whose time path a researcher wishes to find trend and cycle movements. But individual sectors and regions in aggregate economies move neither perfectly with nor independently of each other -- why is it useful to study their aggregate? Using a model for non-stationary, dynamically evolving distributions, this paper provides evidence that in the United States, regional movements that preserve their aggregate time path nevertheless have important, predictive comovements with aggregate GNP. Such predictive content cannot be understood in traditional macro models that seek the source for business cycles in aggregate productivity or monetary shocks.

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Paper provided by Stockholm - International Economic Studies in its series Papers with number 550.

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Length: 11 pages
Date of creation: 1993
Handle: RePEc:fth:stocin:550
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UNIVERSITY OF STOCKHOLM, INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC STUDIES, S- 106 91 STOCKHOLM SWEDEN.

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Fax: +46-8-161443
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Keywords: business cycles ; economic growth;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
  • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
  • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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  1. Danny Quah & Thomas J. Sargent, 1993. "A Dynamic Index Model for Large Cross Sections," NBER Chapters,in: Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting, pages 285-310 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Abraham, Katharine G & Katz, Lawrence F, 1986. "Cyclical Unemployment: Sectoral Shifts or Aggregate Disturbances?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(3), pages 507-522, June.
  3. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 1980. "Formulating and estimating dynamic linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 7-46, May.
  4. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1992. "Regional Evolutions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(1), pages 1-76.
  5. Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1992. "Liquidity Effects and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(2), pages 346-353, May.
  6. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1991. "Convergence across States and Regions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1), pages 107-182.
  7. Oded Galor & Joseph Zeira, 1993. "Income Distribution and Macroeconomics," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(1), pages 35-52.
  8. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February.
  9. Alan P. Kirman, 1992. "Whom or What Does the Representative Individual Represent?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 117-136, Spring.
  10. Eichengreen, Barry, 1990. "One Money for Europe? Lessons from the US Currency Union," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt6ks1k831, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  11. Geweke, John & Marshall, Robert C & Zarkin, Gary A, 1986. "Mobility Indices in Continuous Time Markov Chains," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(6), pages 1407-1423, November.
  12. Barro, Robert J & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Convergence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 223-251, April.
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Cited by:

  1. Catherine Fuss, 1999. "Mesures et tests de convergence : une revue de la littérature," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 69(1), pages 221-249.
  2. Guido Fioretti, 2005. "A Model of Primary and Secondary Waves in Investment Cycles," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 24(4), pages 357-381, June.
  3. Kawagoe, Masaaki, 1999. "Regional Dynamics in Japan: A Reexamination of Barro Regressions," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 61-72, March.
  4. Danny Quah, 1996. "Convergence as Distribution Dynamics (with or without Growth)," CEP Discussion Papers dp0317, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  5. Quah, Danny T., 1996. "Empirics for economic growth and convergence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1353-1375, June.
  6. Danny Quah, 1995. "Empirics for economic growth and convergence," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 2136, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  7. Magrini, Stefano, 1999. "The evolution of income disparities among the regions of the European Union," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 257-281, March.
  8. Danny Quah, 1996. "Aggregate and Regional Disaggregate Fluctuations," CEP Discussion Papers dp0275, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  9. D'Amico, Guglielmo & Di Biase, Giuseppe & Manca, Raimondo, 2012. "Income inequality dynamic measurement of Markov models: Application to some European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1598-1602.
  10. Bruno, C. & Fuss, C., 1999. "Asymmetries on European labour markets," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 1999-03, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  11. Sergio J. Rey & Mark V. Janikas, 2005. "Regional convergence, inequality, and space," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(2), pages 155-176, April.
  12. Danny Quah, 1995. "Empirics for Economic Growth and Convergence," CEP Discussion Papers dp0253, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  13. Wakerly, Elizabeth C., 2002. "Disaggregate dynamics and economic growth in Canada," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 197-219, March.
  14. Quah, Danny T., 1996. "Regional convergence clusters across Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 951-958, April.
  15. Magrini, Stefano, 2004. "Regional (di)convergence," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics,in: J. V. Henderson & J. F. Thisse (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 62, pages 2741-2796 Elsevier.
  16. Sergio J. Rey & Mark V. Janikas, 2003. "Convergence and space," Urban/Regional 0311002, EconWPA, revised 16 Nov 2003.
  17. Paul Cheshire & Stefano Magrini, 2005. "Analysing Growth and Distribution Dynamics - Isolating Divergence Factors," ERSA conference papers ersa05p749, European Regional Science Association.

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