A Model of Primary and Secondary Waves in Investment Cycles
Schumpeter maintained that oscillations of macroeconomic variables are only the “secondary wave” of business cycles, a reflex of more fundamental “primary waves” at the microeconomic level caused by the innovative activity of entrepreneurs. Uniting Schumpeter’s concern for innovation with Keynes’ concern for uncertainty and expectations formation, this article focuses on the behaviour of entrepreneurs confronting uncertainty caused by innovation. Entrepreneurs’ behaviour is reconstructed by modelling the functioning of their cognitive processes when innovations appear. Recognition of the possibilities opened up by a successful innovation generates a state of optimism in the minds of single entrepreneurs, which eventually propagates to the whole economy triggering an investments upswing. Likewise, unsuccessful innovations can trigger a downswing. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2005
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 24 (2005)
Issue (Month): 4 (June)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.springer.com|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.springer.com/economics/economic+theory/journal/10614/PS2|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Harchaoui, Tarek M & Lasserre, Pierre, 2001.
"Testing the Option Value Theory of Irreversible Investment,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(1), pages 141-166, February.
- Harchaoui, T. & Lasserre, P., 1995. "Testing the Option Vakue Theory of Irreversible Investment," G.R.E.Q.A.M. 95b04, Universite Aix-Marseille III.
- Tarek M. Harchaoui & Pierre Lasserre, 1999. "Testing the Option Value Theory of Irreversible Investment," CIRANO Working Papers 99s-35, CIRANO.
- Tarek M. Harchaoui & Pierre Lasserre, 1995. "Testing the Option Value Theory of Irreversible Investment," CIRANO Working Papers 95s-41, CIRANO.
- Tarek M. Harchaoui & Pierre Lasserre, 1999. "Testing the Option Value Theory of Irreversible Investment," Cahiers de recherche du Département des sciences économiques, UQAM 9905, Université du Québec à Montréal, Département des sciences économiques.
- Alesina, Alberto & Perotti, Roberto, 1996. "Income distribution, political instability, and investment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1203-1228, June.
- Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1993. "Income Distribution, Political Instability, and Investment," NBER Working Papers 4486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Quah, Danny, 1994. "One business cycle and one trend from (many,) many disaggregates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 605-614, April.
- Quah, D., 1993. "One Business Cycle and One Trend From(Many) Many Disaggregates," Papers 550, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Quah, Danny, 1994. "One Business Cycle and One Trend from (Many) Many Disaggregates," CEPR Discussion Papers 873, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Silverberg, Gerald & Lehnert, Doris, 1993. "Long waves and 'evolutionary chaos' in a simple Schumpeterian model of embodied technical change," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 9-37, June.
- Luigi Guiso & Giuseppe Parigi, 1999. "Investment and Demand Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(1), pages 185-227.
- Guiso, Luigi & Parigi, Giuseppe, 1996. "Investment and Demand Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 1497, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Guiso, L. & Parigi, G., 1996. "Investment and Demand Uncertainty," Papers 289, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
- Witt, Ulrich, 1998. "Imagination and leadership - The neglected dimension of an evolutionary theory of the firm," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 161-177, April.
- J. Peter Ferderer, 1993. "Does Uncertainty Affect Investment Spending?," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 16(1), pages 19-35, October.
- Alexander Lehmann, 1999. "Country Risks and the Investment Activity of U.S. Multinationals in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 99/133, International Monetary Fund.
- Lane, David & Malerba, Franco & Maxfield, Robert & Orsenigo, Luigi, 1996. "Choice and Action," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 43-76, February.
- David Lane & Franco Malerba & Robert Maxfield & Luigi Orsenigo, 1995. "Choice and Action," Working Papers 95-01-004, Santa Fe Institute.
- Goel, Rajeev K & Ram, Rati, 1999. "Variations in the Effect of Uncertainty on Different Types of Investment: An Empirical Investigation," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(4), pages 481-492, December.
- Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
- Caballero, Ricardo J, 1991. "On the Sign of the Investment-Uncertainty Relationship," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 279-288, March.
- Calcagnini, Giorgio & Saltari, Enrico, 2000. "Real and Financial Uncertainty and Investment Decisions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 491-514, July.
- John Haltiwanger & Russell Cooper & Laura Power, 1999. "Machine Replacement and the Business Cycle: Lumps and Bumps," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 921-946, September.
- Russell Cooper & John Haltiwanger & Laura Power, 1995. "Machine Replacement and the Business Cycle: Lumps and Bumps," Papers 0062, Boston University - Industry Studies Programme.
- Russell Cooper & John Haltiwanger & Laura Power, 1995. "Machine Replacement and the Business Cycle: Lumps and Bumps," NBER Working Papers 5260, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- George, Anita & Morisset, Jacques & DEC, 1993. "Does price uncertainty really reduce private investment? A small model applied to Chile," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1114, The World Bank.
- Driver, Ciaran & Moreton, David, 1991. "The Influence of Uncertainty on UK Manufacturing Investment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(409), pages 1452-1459, November.
- Gopikrishnan, P. & Plerou, V. & Gabaix, X. & Amaral, L.A.N. & Stanley, H.E., 2001. "Price fluctuations and market activity," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 299(1), pages 137-143.
- Caballero, Ricardo J & Pindyck, Robert S, 1996. "Uncertainty, Investment, and Industry Evolution," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 37(3), pages 641-662, August.
- Ricardo J. Caballero & Robert S. Pindyck, 1992. "Uncertainty, Investment, and Industry Evolution," NBER Working Papers 4160, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Caballero, Ricardo J. & Pindyck, Robert S., 1992. "Uncertainty, investment, and industry evolution," Working papers 3460-92., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- G. Fioretti, 1996. "A Concept of Complexity for the Social Sciences," Working Papers wp96144, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
- Michael D. Ryall, 1996. "Entrepreneurs: Self-Confident Agents Busting Self-Confirming Equilibria," Working Papers 96-08-068, Santa Fe Institute.
- Shang-Jin Wei, 1997. "Why is Corruption So Much More Taxing Than Tax? Arbitrariness Kills," NBER Working Papers 6255, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kregel, J A, 1976. "Economic Methodology in the Face of Uncertainty: The Modelling Methods of Keynes and the Post-Keynesians," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 86(342), pages 209-225, June.
- Caballero, Ricardo J., 1999. "Aggregate investment," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 813-862 Elsevier.
- Cabalero, R.J., 1997. "Aggregaete Investment," Working papers 97-20, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Ricardo J. Caballero, 1997. "Aggregate Investment," NBER Working Papers 6264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- A. Meltzer & Peter Ordeshook & Thomas Romer, 1983. "Introduction," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 1-5, January.
- Mark E. Doms & Timothy Dunne, 1998. "Capital Adjustment Patterns in Manufacturing Plants," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(2), pages 409-429, April.
- Mark Doms & Timothy Dunne, 1994. "Capital Adjustment Patterns in Manufacturing Plants," Working Papers 94-11, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
- Vivek Ghosal & Prakash Loungani, 2000. "The Differential Impact of Uncertainty on Investment in Small and Large Businesses," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 338-343, May.
- Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo M. R. A. Engel & John C. Haltiwanger, 1995. "Plant-Level Adjustment and Aggregate Investment Dynamics," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(2), pages 1-54.
- Parameswaran Gopikrishnan & Vasiliki Plerou & Xavier Gabaix & H. Eugene Stanley, 2000. "Statistical Properties of Share Volume Traded in Financial Markets," Papers cond-mat/0008113, arXiv.org.
- Dan Lovallo & Colin Camerer, 1999. "Overconfidence and Excess Entry: An Experimental Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 306-318, March.
- A. P. Thirlwall, 1983. "Introduction," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 5(3), pages 341-344, April. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:24:y:2005:i:4:p:357-381. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla)or (Rebekah McClure)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.