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Investment under Uncertainty in Electricity Generation

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  • Gugler, Klaus
  • Haxhimusa, Adhurim
  • Liebensteiner, Mario
  • Schindler, Nora

Abstract

The recent transformation of European electricity markets with increasing generation from intermittent renewables brings about many challenges. Among them, decaying wholesale prices, partly due to support schemes for renewables, may send insufficient investment signals for other technologies. We investigate the investment decision in a structural equation based on the Tobin's q-model, which we extend by both industry- and firm-technology-specific uncertainty. We utilize rich and novel data at the disaggregated firm generation technology level of European electricity generating firms for the period 2006-2014. Our results show that investment in any generation technology follows market incentives despite sunk and irreversible capital, confirming the implications of the q-model. Moreover, while firm-technology-specific uncertainty decreases firms' investment activity, especially in coal and gas, aggregate uncertainty triggers firms' investment. Our results raise concerns about system reliability in the long run since conventional technologies still serve as a flexible system back-up. (authors' abstract)

Suggested Citation

  • Gugler, Klaus & Haxhimusa, Adhurim & Liebensteiner, Mario & Schindler, Nora, 2016. "Investment under Uncertainty in Electricity Generation," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 234, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    • Handle: RePEc:wiw:wus005:5177
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    1. Haxhimusa, Adhurim, 2018. "The Effects of German Wind and Solar Electricity on French Spot Price Volatility: An Empirical Investigation," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 258, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    2. Liebensteiner, Mario & Wrienz, Matthias, 2020. "Do Intermittent Renewables Threaten the Electricity Supply Security?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).

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    Keywords

    Tobin's q; Uncertainty; Investment; Electricity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L22 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Organization and Market Structure
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance
    • L51 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - Economics of Regulation
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

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