Intermittently renewable energy, optimal capacity mix and prices in a deregulated electricity market
This paper assesses the effect of intermittently renewable energy on generation capacity mix and market prices. We consider two generating technologies: (1) conventional fossil-fueled technology such as combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT), and (2) sunshine-dependent renewable technology such as photovoltaic cells (PV). In the first stage of the model (game), when only the probability distribution functions of future daily electricity demand and sunshine are known, producers maximize their expected profits by determining the CCGT and PV capacity to be constructed. In the second stage, once daily demand and sunshine conditions become known, each producer selects the daily production by each technology, taking the capacities of both technologies as given, and subject to the availability of the PV capacity, which can be used only if the sun is shining. Using real-world data for Israel, we confirm that the introduction of PV technology amplifies price volatility. A large reduction in PV capacity cost increases PV adoption but may also raise the average price. Thus, when considering the promotion of renewable energy to reduce CO2 emissions, regulators should assess the behavior of the electricity market, particularly with respect to characteristics of renewable technologies and demand and supply uncertainties.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Catherine D. Wolfram, 1999. "Measuring Duopoly Power in the British Electricity Spot Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 805-826, September.
- Traber, Thure & Kemfert, Claudia, 2011.
"Gone with the wind? -- Electricity market prices and incentives to invest in thermal power plants under increasing wind energy supply,"
Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 249-256, March.
- Thure Traber & Claudia Kemfert, 2009. "Gone with the Wind?: Electricity Market Prices and Incentives to Invest in Thermal Power Plants under Increasing Wind Energy Supply," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 852, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Badcock, Jeremy & Lenzen, Manfred, 2010. "Subsidies for electricity-generating technologies: A review," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 5038-5047, September.
- Luke Reedman & Paul Graham & Peter Coombes, 2006. "Using a Real-Options Approach to Model Technology Adoption Under Carbon Price Uncertainty: An Application to the Australian Electricity Generation Sector," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 82(s1), pages 64-73, 09.
- Tishler, A. & Woo, C.K., 2006. "Likely failure of electricity deregulation: Explanation with application to Israel," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 845-856.
- Severin Borenstein & James Bushnell, 1998.
"An Empirical Analysis of the Potential for Market Power in California's Electricity Industry,"
NBER Working Papers
6463, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Borenstein, Severin & Bushnell, James, 1999. "An Empirical Analysis of the Potential for Market Power in California's Electricity Industry," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(3), pages 285-323, September.
- Chris Bataille & Nic Rivers & Paulus Mau & Chris Joseph & Jian-Jun Tu, 2007. "How Malleable are the Greenhouse Gas Emission Intensities of the G7 Nations?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 145-170.
- Cansino, José M. & Pablo-Romero, María del P. & Román, Rocío & Yñiguez, Rocío, 2010. "Tax incentives to promote green electricity: An overview of EU-27 countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 6000-6008, October.
- Lior, Noam, 2010. "Sustainable energy development: The present (2009) situation and possible paths to the future," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 3976-3994.
- Steven L. Puller, 2007. "Pricing and Firm Conduct in California's Deregulated Electricity Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 75-87, February.
- Odenberger, M. & Johnsson, F., 2007. "Achieving 60% CO2 reductions within the UK energy system--Implications for the electricity generation sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 2433-2452, April.
- Kessides, Ioannis N., 2010. "Nuclear power: Understanding the economic risks and uncertainties," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 3849-3864, August.
- Tishler, Asher & Milstein, Irena & Woo, Chi-Keung, 2008. "Capacity commitment and price volatility in a competitive electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1625-1647, July.
- Khatib, Hisham, 2010. "Review of OECD study into "Projected costs of generating electricity--2010 Edition"," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 5403-5408, October.
- Bushnell, James & Mansur, Erin T. & Saravia, Celeste, 2008.
"Vertical Arrangements, Market Structure and Competition: An Analysis of Restructured U.S. Electricity Markets,"
Staff General Research Papers Archive
13130, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- James B. Bushnell & Erin T. Mansur & Celeste Saravia, 2008. "Vertical Arrangements, Market Structure, and Competition: An Analysis of Restructured US Electricity Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 237-266, March.
- James B. Bushnell & Erin T. Mansur & Celeste Saravia, 2007. "Vertical Arrangements, Market Structure, and Competition An Analysis of Restructured U.S. Electricity Markets," NBER Working Papers 13507, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Wang, Lizhi & Mazumdar, Mainak & Bailey, Matthew D. & Valenzuela, Jorge, 2007. "Oligopoly models for market price of electricity under demand uncertainty and unit reliability," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 181(3), pages 1309-1321, September.
- Hung-po Chao, 1983. "Peak Load Pricing and Capacity Planning with Demand and Supply Uncertainty," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 14(1), pages 179-190, Spring.
- Pedro Linares & Francisco Javier Santos & Mariano Ventosa & Luis Lapiedra, 2006. "Impacts of the European Emissions Trading Scheme Directive and Permit Assignment Methods on the Spanish Electricity Sector," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 79-98.
- David M. Newbery, 1998.
"Competition, Contracts, and Entry in the Electricity Spot Market,"
RAND Journal of Economics,
The RAND Corporation, vol. 29(4), pages 726-749, Winter.
- Newbery, D. M., 1997. "Competition, Contracts and Entry in the Electricity Spot Market," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9707, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Milstein, Irena & Tishler, Asher, 2012. "The inevitability of capacity underinvestment in competitive electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 62-77.
- Trainer, Ted, 2010. "Can renewables etc. solve the greenhouse problem? The negative case," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4107-4114, August.
- Carpio, Lucio Guido Tapia & Pereira, Amaro Jr., 2007. "Economical efficiency of coordinating the generation by subsystems with the capacity of transmission in the Brazilian market of electricity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 454-466, May.
- Martinsen, Dag & Linssen, Jochen & Markewitz, Peter & Vogele, Stefan, 2007. "CCS: A future CO2 mitigation option for Germany?--A bottom-up approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 2110-2120, April.
- Lise, Wietze & Kruseman, Gideon, 2008. "Long-term price and environmental effects in a liberalised electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 230-248, March.
- Green, Richard J, 1996. "Increasing Competition in the British Electricity Spot Market," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 205-216, June.
- John P. Weyant, Francisco C. de la Chesnaye, and Geoff J. Blanford, 2006. "Overview of EMF-21: Multigas Mitigation and Climate Policy," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 1-32.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:7:p:3922-3927. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.