IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v126y2019icp518-532.html

Investment in electricity capacity under fuel cost uncertainty: Dual-fuel and a mix of single-fuel technologies

Author

Listed:
  • Gal, Nurit
  • Milstein, Irena
  • Tishler, Asher
  • Woo, C.K.

Abstract

We study the effect of the price and price volatility of natural gas on investment in electricity capacity in two technology scenarios: (1) dual-fuel units that use natural gas and diesel; and (2) a mix of single-fuel plants that use coal or natural gas. We develop a two-stage (capacity and operation) model and derive analytical solutions for both scenarios. Based on the observed log-normal distribution of the natural gas price, we show that optimal capacity investment increases moderately with natural gas price volatility, countering a commonly held view that fuel cost uncertainty tends to discourage capacity investment. Thus, higher volatility of the natural gas price tends to reduce the 'missing money' problem. We use Texas data to show that higher gas price volatility implies higher profits and consumer surplus in the first scenario, even when the per MWh diesel cost is much higher than the expected value of the per MWh gas cost. In the second scenario, firms invest only in gas capacity, unless the per MWh coal cost is significantly below the expected per MWh gas cost, thus explaining the popularity of gas generation.

Suggested Citation

  • Gal, Nurit & Milstein, Irena & Tishler, Asher & Woo, C.K., 2019. "Investment in electricity capacity under fuel cost uncertainty: Dual-fuel and a mix of single-fuel technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 518-532.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:126:y:2019:i:c:p:518-532
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2018.10.040
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421518306943
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2018.10.040?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Natalia Fabra & Nils‐Henrik Fehr & David Harbord, 2006. "Designing electricity auctions," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 37(1), pages 23-46, March.
    2. Natalia Fabra & Nils-Henrik M. von der Fehr & David Harbord, 2006. "Designing Electricity Auctions," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 37(1), pages 23-46, Spring.
    3. repec:aen:journl:2005se-a03 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Frayer, Julia & Uludere, Nazli Z., 2001. "What Is It Worth? Application of Real Options Theory to the Valuation of Generation Assets," The Electricity Journal, Elsevier, vol. 14(8), pages 40-51, October.
    5. Geman, Hélyette & Ohana, Steve, 2009. "Forward curves, scarcity and price volatility in oil and natural gas markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 576-585, July.
    6. repec:aen:journl:2006v27-01-a01 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Shimon Awerbuch & Spencer Yang, 2007. "Efficient electricity generating portfolios for Europe: maximising energy security and climate change mitigation," EIB Papers 7/2007, European Investment Bank, Economics Department.
    8. Bhagwat, Pradyumna C. & Iychettira, Kaveri K. & Richstein, Jörn C. & Chappin, Emile J.L. & De Vries, Laurens J., 2017. "The effectiveness of capacity markets in the presence of a high portfolio share of renewable energy sources," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 76-91.
    9. repec:aen:eeepjl:2_2_a01 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:aen:journl:1999v20-04-a03 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Catherine D. Wolfram, 1999. "Measuring Duopoly Power in the British Electricity Spot Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 805-826, September.
    12. Severin Borenstein & Stephen Holland, 2005. "On the Efficiency of Competitive Electricity Markets with Time-Invariant Retail Prices," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 36(3), pages 469-493, Autumn.
    13. Larson, Eric D. & Zongxin, Wu & DeLaquil, Pat & Wenying, Chen & Pengfei, Gao, 2003. "Future implications of China's energy-technology choices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(12), pages 1189-1204, September.
    14. Pindyck, Robert S, 1991. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 1110-1148, September.
    15. repec:aen:journl:1995v16-02-a05 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. De Jonghe, Cedric & Delarue, Erik & Belmans, Ronnie & D'haeseleer, William, 2011. "Determining optimal electricity technology mix with high level of wind power penetration," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(6), pages 2231-2238, June.
    17. Arnesano, M. & Carlucci, A.P. & Laforgia, D., 2012. "Extension of portfolio theory application to energy planning problem – The Italian case," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 112-124.
    18. Lijesen, Mark G., 2007. "The real-time price elasticity of electricity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 249-258, March.
    19. repec:aen:journl:32-3-a06 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. repec:aen:journl:2005v26-03-a05 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. David M. Newbery, 1998. "Competition, Contracts, and Entry in the Electricity Spot Market," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 29(4), pages 726-749, Winter.
    22. Zhu, Lei & Fan, Ying, 2010. "Optimization of China's generating portfolio and policy implications based on portfolio theory," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1391-1402.
    23. repec:dau:papers:123456789/607 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Silve, F. & Noel, P., 2010. "Cost Curves for Gas Supply Security: The Case of Bulgaria," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1056, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    25. Jean Tirole, 1988. "The Theory of Industrial Organization," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262200716, December.
    26. Milstein, Irena & Tishler, Asher, 2015. "Can price volatility enhance market power? The case of renewable technologies in competitive electricity markets," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 70-90.
    27. Natalia Fabra & Nils‐Henrik M von der Fehr & María‐Ángeles de Frutos, 2011. "Market Design and Investment Incentives," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(557), pages 1340-1360, December.
    28. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474, December.
    29. Severin Borenstein & James Bushnell & Christopher R. Knittel, 1999. "Market Power in Electricity Markets: Beyond Concentration Measures," The Energy Journal, , vol. 20(4), pages 65-88, October.
    30. Bhagwat, Pradyumna C. & Iychettira, Kaveri K. & Richstein, Jörn C. & Chappin, Emile J.L. & Vries, Laurens J. De, 2017. "The effectiveness of capacity markets in the presence of a high portfolio share of renewable energy sources," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 48, pages 76-91.
    31. Bergman, Lars & Andersson, Bo, 1995. "Market Structure and the Price of Electricity: An ex ante Analysis of the deregulated Swedish Electricity Market," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 47, Stockholm School of Economics.
    32. repec:aen:journl:ej37-3-woo is not listed on IDEAS
    33. Jean-Michel Glachant & Michelle Hallack & Miguel Vazquez, 2013. "Building Competitive Gas Markets in the EU," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 15263, June.
    34. Severin Borenstein & James B. Bushnell & Frank A. Wolak, 2002. "Measuring Market Inefficiencies in California's Restructured Wholesale Electricity Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1376-1405, December.
    35. Bajo-Buenestado, Raúl, 2017. "Welfare implications of capacity payments in a price-capped electricity sector: A case study of the Texas market (ERCOT)," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 272-285.
    36. Diakoulaki, D. & Karangelis, F., 2007. "Multi-criteria decision analysis and cost-benefit analysis of alternative scenarios for the power generation sector in Greece," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 716-727, May.
    37. Frederic H. Murphy & Yves Smeers, 2005. "Generation Capacity Expansion in Imperfectly Competitive Restructured Electricity Markets," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 53(4), pages 646-661, August.
    38. Gal, Nurit & Milstein, Irena & Tishler, Asher & Woo, C.K., 2017. "Fuel cost uncertainty, capacity investment and price in a competitive electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 233-240.
    39. David Besanko & Ulrich Doraszelski, 2004. "Capacity Dynamics and Endogenous Asymmetries in Firm Size," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 35(1), pages 23-49, Spring.
    40. Helyette Geman, 2005. "Commodities and Commodity Derivatives. Modeling and Pricing for Agriculturals, Metals and Energy," Post-Print halshs-00144182, HAL.
    41. Milstein, Irena & Tishler, Asher, 2012. "The inevitability of capacity underinvestment in competitive electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 62-77.
    42. Milstein, Irena & Tishler, Asher, 2011. "Intermittently renewable energy, optimal capacity mix and prices in a deregulated electricity market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 3922-3927, July.
    43. Tishler, Asher & Milstein, Irena & Woo, Chi-Keung, 2008. "Capacity commitment and price volatility in a competitive electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1625-1647, July.
    44. Paul L. Joskow, 2013. "Natural Gas: From Shortages to Abundance in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 338-343, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Carfora, A. & Pansini, R.V. & Scandurra, G., 2021. "The role of environmental taxes and public policies in supporting RES investments in EU countries: Barriers and mimicking effects," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    2. Woo, C.K. & Milstein, I. & Tishler, A. & Zarnikau, J., 2019. "A wholesale electricity market design sans missing money and price manipulation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    3. Selçuklu, Saltuk Buğra & Coit, D.W. & Felder, F.A., 2023. "Electricity generation portfolio planning and policy implications of Turkish power system considering cost, emission, and uncertainty," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    4. Milstein, Irena & Tishler, Asher & Woo, Chi-Keung, 2022. "Wholesale electricity market economics of solar generation in Israel," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    5. Cao, K.H. & Qi, H.S. & Tsai, C.H. & Woo, C.K. & Zarnikau, J., 2021. "Energy trading efficiency in the US Midcontinent electricity markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    6. Kang Hua Cao & Han Qi & Chi-Keung Woo & Jay Zarnikau & Raymond Li, 2024. "Efficient Frontiers for Short-term Sales of Spot and Forward Wind Energy in Texas," The Energy Journal, , vol. 45(6), pages 37-60, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gal, Nurit & Milstein, Irena & Tishler, Asher & Woo, C.K., 2017. "Fuel cost uncertainty, capacity investment and price in a competitive electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 233-240.
    2. Milstein, Irena & Tishler, Asher, 2015. "Can price volatility enhance market power? The case of renewable technologies in competitive electricity markets," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 70-90.
    3. Milstein, I. & Tishler, A. & Woo, C.K., 2024. "The effect of PV generation's hourly variations on Israel's solar investment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    4. Milstein, Irena & Tishler, Asher & Woo, Chi-Keung, 2022. "Wholesale electricity market economics of solar generation in Israel," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    5. Milstein, Irena & Tishler, Asher, 2019. "On the effects of capacity payments in competitive electricity markets: Capacity adequacy, price cap, and reliability," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 370-385.
    6. Sirin, Selahattin Murat & Camadan, Ercument & Erten, Ibrahim Etem & Zhang, Alex Hongliang, 2023. "Market failure or politics? Understanding the motives behind regulatory actions to address surging electricity prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    7. Bajo-Buenestado, Raúl, 2017. "Welfare implications of capacity payments in a price-capped electricity sector: A case study of the Texas market (ERCOT)," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 272-285.
    8. Brown, David P. & Eckert, Andrew & Silveira, Douglas, 2023. "Screening for collusion in wholesale electricity markets: A literature review," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    9. Pinho, Joana & Resende, Joana & Soares, Isabel, 2018. "Capacity investment in electricity markets under supply and demand uncertainty," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 1006-1017.
    10. Mendes, Carla & Soares, Isabel, 2014. "Renewable energies impacting the optimal generation mix: The case of the Iberian Electricity Market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 23-33.
    11. de Frutos, María-Ángeles & Fabra, Natalia, 2012. "How to allocate forward contracts: The case of electricity markets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 451-469.
    12. Tishler, Asher & Milstein, Irena & Woo, Chi-Keung, 2008. "Capacity commitment and price volatility in a competitive electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1625-1647, July.
    13. Matthias Janssen & Magnus Wobben, "undated". "Electricity Pricing and Market Power - Evidence from Germany," Working Papers 200121, Institute of Spatial and Housing Economics, Munster Universitary.
    14. Crawford, Gregory S. & Crespo, Joseph & Tauchen, Helen, 2007. "Bidding asymmetries in multi-unit auctions: Implications of bid function equilibria in the British spot market for electricity," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 1233-1268, December.
    15. Fabra, Natalia & de Frutos, Maria-Angeles, 2008. "On the Impact of Forward Contract Obligations in Multi-Unit Auctions," CEPR Discussion Papers 6756, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Cao, K.H. & Qi, H.S. & Tsai, C.H. & Woo, C.K. & Zarnikau, J., 2021. "Energy trading efficiency in the US Midcontinent electricity markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    17. Holmberg, Pär & Newbery, David, 2010. "The supply function equilibrium and its policy implications for wholesale electricity auctions," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 209-226, December.
    18. David P. Brown & David E. M. Sappington, 2022. "Vertical integration and capacity investment in the electricity sector," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 193-226, February.
    19. Bublitz, Andreas & Keles, Dogan & Zimmermann, Florian & Fraunholz, Christoph & Fichtner, Wolf, 2018. "A survey on electricity market design: Insights from theory and real-world implementations of capacity remuneration mechanisms," Working Paper Series in Production and Energy 27, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute for Industrial Production (IIP).
    20. Bohland, Moritz & Schwenen, Sebastian, 2022. "Renewable support and strategic pricing in electricity markets," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
    • L95 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Gas Utilities; Pipelines; Water Utilities

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:126:y:2019:i:c:p:518-532. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.