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Investment in Manufacturing, Exchange-Rates and External Exposure

  • Jose Campa
  • Linda S. Goldberg

This paper studies the linkage between exchange rates and investment. emphasizing the role of producer exposure through export sales and through imported inputs into production. For two-digit United States manufacturing sectors we present time series of export shares and imported input shares. On average. manufacturing sectors have evolved from being primarily export exposed in the 1970s to being primarily import exposed by the early 1980s. Due to this pattern in exposure. exchange rate appreciations reduced investment in durable goods sectors in the 1970s and stimulated investment after 1983. By contrast nondurables sectors tended to absorb exchange rate changes in price over cost markups. Exchange rate volatility depressed investment but the effects were quantitatively small.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w4378.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4378.

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Date of creation: Jun 1993
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Publication status: published as Journal of International Economics, (May 1995), vol 38, pp 297-320
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4378
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  1. Goldberg, Linda S. & Kolstad, Charles D., 1994. "Foreign Direct Investment, Exchange Rate Variability and Demand Uncertainty," Working Papers 94-23, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
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  3. von Ungern Sternberg, Thomas & von Weizsacker, C C, 1990. "Strategic Foreign Exchange Management," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(4), pages 381-95, June.
  4. Ian Domowitz & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 1986. "Business Cycles and the Relationship Between Concentration and Price-Cost Margins," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 17(1), pages 1-17, Spring.
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  7. Pindyck, Robert S, 1988. "Irreversible Investment, Capacity Choice, and the Value of the Firm," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 969-85, December.
  8. Robert E. Hall, 1986. "The Relation Between Price and Marginal Cost in U.S. Industry," NBER Working Papers 1785, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Wolak, Frank A & Kolstad, Charles D, 1991. "A Model of Homogeneous Input Demand under Price Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(3), pages 514-38, June.
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  11. de Meza, David & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 1987. "Production Flexibility as a Motive for Multinationality," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(3), pages 343-51, March.
  12. Abel, Andrew B, 1983. "Optimal Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 228-33, March.
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  15. Dixit, A., 1988. "Entry And Exit Decisions Under Uncertainty," Papers 91, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
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  17. Hartman, Richard, 1972. "The effects of price and cost uncertainty on investment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 258-266, October.
  18. Goldberg, Linda S., 1990. "Measuring External Openness: The Index Of Effective Exposure," Working Papers 90-19, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  19. Knetter, Michael M, 1989. "Price Discrimination by U.S. and German Exporters," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 198-210, March.
  20. Catherine L. Mann, 1986. "Prices, profit margins, and exchange rates," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Jun, pages 366-379.
  21. Jorion, Philippe, 1990. "The Exchange-Rate Exposure of U.S. Multinationals," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(3), pages 331-45, July.
  22. Kenneth A. Froot & Jeremy C. Stein, 1991. "Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment: An Imperfect Capital Markets Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(4), pages 1191-1217.
  23. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
  24. Caballero, Ricardo J, 1991. "On the Sign of the Investment-Uncertainty Relationship," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 279-88, March.
  25. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1987. "Exchange Rates and Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 93-106, March.
  26. Klein, Michael W., 1990. "Sectoral effects of exchange rate volatility on United States exports," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 299-308, September.
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