IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/tcb/cebare/v1y2001i1p25-47.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Investment Decisions under Real Exchange Rate Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Bahar Erdal

Abstract

This paper analyzes the depressing effects of real exchange rate uncertainty on investment spending by using option pricing techniques. Investment under uncertainty assumes that investments are irreversible and can be delayed to wait for new information about prices, exchange rates and other macroeconomic variables. Irreversible investment spending is like a financial call option. When the opportunity to undertake irreversible investment is exercised, it kills the option of investing and the possibility of waiting for new information. Therefore, investment decisions of firms are sensitive to uncertainties over economic environment. Assuming present real exchange rate volatility is a proxy for real exchange rate uncertainty, and investment spending is like a call option, this paper shows that real exchange rate volatility causes optimal real exchange rate level to undertake investment to be higher for export-oriented sectors and lower for import-oriented sectors. Thus, the zone of "inaction" increases, and real investment spending falls as volatility increases regardless of whether the sector is an export-oriented or import-oriented sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Bahar Erdal, 2001. "Investment Decisions under Real Exchange Rate Uncertainty," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 1(1), pages 25-47.
  • Handle: RePEc:tcb:cebare:v:1:y:2001:i:1:p:25-47
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Publications/Central+Bank+Review/2001/Volume+1-1/
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Timothy A Luehrman, 1991. "Exchange Rate Changes and the Distribution of Industry Value," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 22(4), pages 619-649, December.
    2. Robert S. Pindyck & Andrés Solimano, 1993. "Economic Instability and Aggregate Investment," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1993, Volume 8, pages 259-318 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Abel, Andrew B & Eberly, Janice C, 1994. "A Unified Model of Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1369-1384, December.
    4. Pindyck, Robert S, 1988. "Irreversible Investment, Capacity Choice, and the Value of the Firm," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 969-985, December.
    5. Avinash Dixit, 1989. "Hysteresis, Import Penetration, and Exchange Rate Pass-Through," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 104(2), pages 205-228.
    6. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
    7. Caballero, Ricardo J & Pindyck, Robert S, 1996. "Uncertainty, Investment, and Industry Evolution," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 37(3), pages 641-662, August.
    8. Charles Engel & Craig S. Hakkio, 1993. "Exchange rate regimes and volatility," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 43-58.
    9. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
    10. Craine, Roger, 1989. "Risky business : The allocation of capital," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 201-218, March.
    11. Caballero, Ricardo J, 1991. "On the Sign of the Investment-Uncertainty Relationship," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 279-288, March.
    12. Kenneth A. Froot & Jeremy C. Stein, 1991. "Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment: An Imperfect Capital Markets Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(4), pages 1191-1217.
    13. Joshua Aizenman, 1992. "Exchange Rate Flexibility, Volatility, and Domestic and Foreign Direct Investment," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(4), pages 890-922, December.
    14. Fischer, S., 1991. "Growth, Macroeconomics, and Development," Working papers 580, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    15. Campa, Jose & Goldberg, Linda S., 1995. "Investment in manufacturing, exchange rates and external exposure," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 297-320, May.
    16. Ferderer, J Peter, 1993. "The Impact of Uncertainty on Aggregate Investment Spending: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(1), pages 30-48, February.
    17. Goldberg, Linda S, 1993. "Exchange Rates and Investment in United States Industry," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 575-588, November.
    18. Abel, Andrew B, 1983. "Optimal Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 228-233, March.
    19. Stanley Fischer, 1991. "Growth, Macroeconomics, and Development," NBER Working Papers 3702, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A Neoclassical Interpretation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 213-224, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real Exchange Rate; Uncertainty; Investment;

    JEL classification:

    • C60 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - General
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tcb:cebare:v:1:y:2001:i:1:p:25-47. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: () or () or (). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/tcmgvtr.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.