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Exchange Rate Flexibility, Volatility, and the Patterns of Domestic and Foreign Direct Investment

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  • Joshua Aizenman

Abstract

The goal of this paper is to investigate the factors determining the impact of exchange rate regimes on the behavior of domestic investment and foreign direct investment (FDI), and the correlation between exchange rate volatility and investment. We assume that producers may diversify internationally in order to increase the flexibility of production: being a multinational enables producers to reallocate employment and production towards the more efficient or the cheaper plant. We characterize the possible equilibria in a macro model that allows for the presence of a short-run Phillips curve, under a fixed and a flexible exchange rate regime. It is shown that a fixed exchange rate regime is more conducive to FDI relative to a flexible exchange rate, and this conclusion applies for both real and nominal shocks. The correlation between investment and exchange rate volatility under a flexible exchange rate is shown to depend on the nature of the shocks. If the dominant shocks are nominal, we will observe a negative correlation, whereas if the dominant shocks are real, we will observe a positive correlation between exchange rate volatility and the level of investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua Aizenman, 1992. "Exchange Rate Flexibility, Volatility, and the Patterns of Domestic and Foreign Direct Investment," NBER Working Papers 3953, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3953
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    7. Stephen J. Turnovsky, 1983. "Wage Indexation and Exchange Market Interventions in a Small Open Economy," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 16(4), pages 574-592, November.
    8. Fischer, Stanley, 1977. "Wage indexation and macroeconomics stability," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 107-147, January.
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    10. Sebastian Edwards, 1990. "Capital Flows, Foreign Direct Investment, and Debt-Equity Swaps in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 3497, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    13. Joshua Aizenman, 1991. "Foreign Direct Investment, Productive Capacity and Exchange Rate Regimes," NBER Working Papers 3767, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mondher Cherif & Christian Dreger, 2015. "The Impact of South-South Trade Agreements on FDI," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1461, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Campa, Jose & Goldberg, Linda S., 1995. "Investment in manufacturing, exchange rates and external exposure," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 297-320, May.
    3. repec:taf:wjabxx:v:18:y:2017:i:3:p:380-392 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Miao Wang & M. C. Sunny Wong, 2007. "Foreign Direct Investment Outflows and Business-cycle Fluctuations," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 146-163, February.
    5. Bernard Njindan Iyke & Sin-Yu Ho, 2017. "The Real Exchange Rate, the Ghanaian Trade Balance, and the J-curve," Journal of African Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 380-392, July.
    6. repec:taf:oaefxx:v:5:y:2017:i:1:p:1362157 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Njindan Iyke, Bernard & Ho, Sin-Yu, 2017. "Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Domestic Investment in Ghana," MPRA Paper 80474, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Shauna Phillips & Fredoun Z. Ahmadi-Esfahani, 2008. "Exchange rates and foreign direct investment: theoretical models and empirical evidence ," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 52(4), pages 505-525, December.
    9. Martin Bohl & Frank McDonald & Heinz-Josef Tuselmann & Svitlana Voronkova & Paul Windrum, 2011. "The German model of capitalism and the persistence of outward foreign direct investment: evidence from German manufacturing industries," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(2), pages 119-125.
    10. repec:eee:jimfin:v:77:y:2017:i:c:p:143-163 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Bartekova, Eva & Ziesemer, Thomas, 2015. "Impact of electricity prices on foreign direct investment: Evidence from the European Union," MERIT Working Papers 021, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).

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