IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/911.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Does exchange rate volatility hinder export growth? Additional evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Qian, Ying
  • Varangis, Panos

Abstract

The authors examine the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade, using and ARCH-in-mean model. The advantages of this statistical approach over earlier approaches is that it provides more efficient coefficient estimates and it prevents the problem of spurious regressions. They applied the model to six countries, estimating both bilateral and aggregate exports. The results led to the hypothesis that the impact of exchange rate volatility may be influenced by the invoicing of exports. Also, one can argue that the effect of exchange rate volatility on trade is overstated, for the following reasons: exchange rate volatility does not measure the added riskiness of a firm's portfolio;exchange rates can provide a natural hedge in a firm's portfolio; exchange rates may be negatively correlated with each other or with the firm's other assets; and finally, the use of forward markets can provide a useful short-term hedge.

Suggested Citation

  • Qian, Ying & Varangis, Panos, 1992. "Does exchange rate volatility hinder export growth? Additional evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 911, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:911
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/1992/05/01/000009265_3961003005239/Rendered/PDF/multi0page.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Froot, Kenneth A & Klemperer, Paul D, 1989. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through When Market Share Matters," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 637-654, September.
    2. Diebold, Francis X. & Nason, James A., 1990. "Nonparametric exchange rate prediction?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3-4), pages 315-332, May.
    3. Richard Baldwin & Paul Krugman, 1989. "Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchange Rate Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(4), pages 635-654.
    4. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1987. "Exchange Rates and Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 93-106, March.
    5. Padma Gotur, 1985. "Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Trade: Some Further Evidence (Effets de l'instabilité des taux de change sur le commerce mondial: nouvelles constatations) (Efectos de la inestabilidad de los t," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 32(3), pages 475-512, September.
    6. Robert E. Cumby & Maurice Obstfeld, 1980. "Exchange-Rate Expectations and Nominal Interest Differentials: A Test ofthe Fisher Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 0537, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Hooper, Peter & Kohlhagen, Steven W., 1978. "The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the prices and volume of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 483-511, November.
    8. Thursby, Jerry G & Thursby, Marie C, 1987. "Bilateral Trade Flows, the Linder Hypothesis, and Exchange Risk," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 488-495, August.
    9. Cushman, David O., 1983. "The effects of real exchange rate risk on international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1-2), pages 45-63, August.
    10. Robert C. Feenstra & Jon D. Kendall, 1991. "Exchange Rate Volatility and International Prices," NBER Working Papers 3644, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Pritchett,Lant Hayward, 1991. "Measuring real exchange rate instability in developing countries : empirical evidence and implications," Policy Research Working Paper Series 791, The World Bank.
    12. Kenen, Peter B & Rodrik, Dani, 1986. "Measuring and Analyzing the Effects of Short-term Volatility in Real Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(2), pages 311-315, May.
    13. Paul R. Krugman, 1984. "The International Role of the Dollar: Theory and Prospect," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 261-278, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Mark, Nelson C., 1990. "Real and nominal exchange rates in the long run: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 115-136, February.
    15. Avinash Dixit, 1989. "Hysteresis, Import Penetration, and Exchange Rate Pass-Through," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(2), pages 205-228.
    16. Richard Meese & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1981. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies: are any fit to survive?," International Finance Discussion Papers 184, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wesley, J.D. & Shen, Xuan & Li, Sheng & Wilson, Norbert L.W., 2012. "Agricultural Trade Bias in Exchange Rate Volatility Effect Estimation: An Application of Meta-Regression Analysis," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124870, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Meshack Tjirongo, 1995. "Short-term stabilization versus long-term price stability: evaluating Namibia`s membership of the Common Monetary Area," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/1995-18, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    3. World Bank, 2004. "Zambia - Country Economic Memorandum : Policies for Growth and Diversification, Volume 1. Main Report," World Bank Publications - Reports 15666, The World Bank Group.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Arize, A. C., 1996. "Real exchange-rate volatility and trade flows: The experience of eight European economies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 187-205.
    2. Sekkat Khalid, 2001. "On the Aggregate Impact of Exchange Rate Variability on EU Trade," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 57-78, February.
    3. Arize, A. C., 1995. "Trade flows and real exchange-rate volatility: an application of cointegration and error-correction modeling," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 37-51.
    4. Koi Nyen Wong & Tuck Cheong Tang, 2009. "Exchange rate variability and the export demand for Malaysia's semiconductors: an empirical study," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(6), pages 695-706.
    5. Fang, WenShwo & Lai, YiHao & Miller, Stephen M., 2009. "Does exchange rate risk affect exports asymmetrically? Asian evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 215-239, March.
    6. Ngongang, Elie, 2011. "Impact of Exchange Rate Policy on the Trade of Industrial Products in Sub-Saharan Africa from 1975 to 2007," Review of Applied Economics, Lincoln University, Department of Financial and Business Systems, vol. 7(1-2), pages 1-27, March.
    7. Ayoub Yousefi, 2000. "Merchandise Trade Balances of Less Developed Countries and Exchange Rate of the U.S. Dollar: Cases of Iran, Venezuela & Saudi Arabia," Working Papers 00002, University of Waterloo, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2000.
    8. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Neslihan Ozkan, 2004. "Nonlinear effects of exchange rate volatility on the volume of bilateral exports," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 1-23.
    9. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Neslihan Ozkan, 2000. "Exchange Rate Effects on the Volume of Trade Flows: An Empirical Analysis Employing High-Frequency Data," CeNDEF Workshop Papers, January 2001 5B.1, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    10. Ahmed, Md Shoaib, 2009. "An Empirical Study on Exchange Rate Volatility and it Impacts on Bilateral Export Growth: Evidence from Bangladesh," MPRA Paper 19567, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Md Shoaib Ahmed, Shoaib, 2009. "“Exchange Rate Volatility and International Trade Growth: Evidence from Bangladesh”," MPRA Paper 19466, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Smith, C. E., 1999. "Exchange rate variation, commodity price variation and the implications for international trade," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 471-491.
    13. Barkoulas, John T. & Baum, Christopher F. & Caglayan, Mustafa, 2002. "Exchange rate effects on the volume and variability of trade flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 481-496, August.
    14. Klein, Michael W. & Shambaugh, Jay C., 2006. "Fixed exchange rates and trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 359-383, December.
    15. Larson, Donald W. & Bittencourt, Maurício Vaz Lobo & Thompson, Stanley R., 2005. "An Examination of the Impacts of Exchange Rate Volatility on Sectoral Trade in the Mercosur," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19572, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    16. M. Ali Kemal, 2005. "Exchange Rate Instability and Trade. The Case of Pakistan," PIDE-Working Papers 2005:186, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    17. A. C. Arize & S. S. Shwiff, 1998. "Does exchange-rate volatility affect import flows in G-7 Countries? Evidence from cointegration models," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(10), pages 1269-1276.
    18. Don Bredin & Stilianos Fountas & Eithne Murphy, 2003. "An Empirical Analysis of Short-run and Long-run Irish Export Functions: Does exchange rate volatility matter?," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 193-208.
    19. Choudhry, Taufiq, 2005. "Exchange rate volatility and the United States exports: evidence from Canada and Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 51-71, March.
    20. Flam, Harry & Jansson, Per, 2000. "EMU Effects on International Trade and Investment," Seminar Papers 683, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:911. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.