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Does exchange rate volatility hinder export growth? Additional evidence

Author

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  • Qian, Ying
  • Varangis, Panos

Abstract

The authors examine the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade, using and ARCH-in-mean model. The advantages of this statistical approach over earlier approaches is that it provides more efficient coefficient estimates and it prevents the problem of spurious regressions. They applied the model to six countries, estimating both bilateral and aggregate exports. The results led to the hypothesis that the impact of exchange rate volatility may be influenced by the invoicing of exports. Also, one can argue that the effect of exchange rate volatility on trade is overstated, for the following reasons: exchange rate volatility does not measure the added riskiness of a firm's portfolio;exchange rates can provide a natural hedge in a firm's portfolio; exchange rates may be negatively correlated with each other or with the firm's other assets; and finally, the use of forward markets can provide a useful short-term hedge.

Suggested Citation

  • Qian, Ying & Varangis, Panos, 1992. "Does exchange rate volatility hinder export growth? Additional evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 911, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:911
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Padma Gotur, 1985. "Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Trade: Some Further Evidence (Effets de l'instabilité des taux de change sur le commerce mondial: nouvelles constatations) (Efectos de la inestabilidad de los t," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 32(3), pages 475-512, September.
    6. Robert E. Cumby & Maurice Obstfeld, 1980. "Exchange-Rate Expectations and Nominal Interest Differentials: A Test ofthe Fisher Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 0537, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    11. Pritchett,Lant Hayward, 1991. "Measuring real exchange rate instability in developing countries : empirical evidence and implications," Policy Research Working Paper Series 791, The World Bank.
    12. Kenen, Peter B & Rodrik, Dani, 1986. "Measuring and Analyzing the Effects of Short-term Volatility in Real Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(2), pages 311-315, May.
    13. Paul R. Krugman, 1984. "The International Role of the Dollar: Theory and Prospect," NBER Chapters,in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 261-278 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. World Bank, 2004. "Zambia - Country Economic Memorandum : Policies for Growth and Diversification, Volume 1. Main Report," World Bank Other Operational Studies 15666, The World Bank.

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