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An Empirical Study on Exchange Rate Volatility and it Impacts on Bilateral Export Growth: Evidence from Bangladesh

  • Ahmed, Md Shoaib

This is an empirically study to investigate the exchange rate volatility and it impacts on bilateral exports growth: evidence from Bangladesh. The countries are considered to determine based on the bilateral relationship between Bangladesh and the other countries under a range of regional economic blocks such as North America, Western Europe, Eastern Europe, SAARC, ASEAN, and Asia-Pacific regions. To establish the empirical relationship between exchange rate volatility and impact on exports growth, cointegration and error correction techniques are used by considering the data from 2003 to 2008. From the investigation, the result shows that the exchange rate volatility has a negative and major effect both in short run and long run with important trading partners, which are Western European and North American countries. Similar pattern was also experienced in case of few countries such as Singapore, Japan, Malaysia and China where the volume of trade with Bangladesh is comparatively consistent and less volatile. The relationship between exchange rate volatility and growth of export for India and Pakistan is observed only in long run perspective. However, there is no empirical relationship being observed of exchange rate volatility and it impacts on export growth between Bangladesh and Iran and other s Gulf countries.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 19567.

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Date of creation: Jan 2009
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:19567
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  1. Paul De Grauwe, 1988. "Exchange Rate Variability and the Slowdown in Growth of International Trade," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(1), pages 63-84, March.
  2. Chowdhury, Abdur R, 1993. "Does Exchange Rate Volatility Depress Trade Flows? Evidence from Error-Correction Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 700-706, November.
  3. Christopher F Baum, Mustafa Caglayan, Neslihan Ozkan, 2001. "Exchange Rate Effects on the Volume of Trade Flows: An Empirical Analysis Employing High-Frequency Data," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 85, Society for Computational Economics.
  4. Warner, Dennis & Kreinin, Mordechai E, 1983. "Determinants of International Trade Flows," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(1), pages 96-104, February.
  5. Cushman, David O., 1988. "U.S. bilateral trade flows and exchange risk during the floating period," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3-4), pages 317-330, May.
  6. O. Cushman, David, 1986. "Has exchange risk depressed international trade? The impact of third-country exchange risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 361-379, September.
  7. Cushman, David O., 1983. "The effects of real exchange rate risk on international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1-2), pages 45-63, August.
  8. Richard Baldwin & Paul R. Krugman, 1986. "Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchage Rate Shocks," NBER Working Papers 2017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 1986. "Determinants of international trade flows : The Case of Developing Countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 107-123.
  10. Kenen, Peter B & Rodrik, Dani, 1986. "Measuring and Analyzing the Effects of Short-term Volatility in Real Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(2), pages 311-15, May.
  11. Bailey, Martin J. & Tavlas, George S. & Ulan, Michael, 1987. "The impact of exchange-rate volatility on export growth: Some theoretical considerations and empirical results," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 225-243.
  12. Koray, Faik & Lastrapes, William D, 1989. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and U.S. Bilateral Trade: A VAR Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(4), pages 708-12, November.
  13. Thursby, Jerry G & Thursby, Marie C, 1987. "Bilateral Trade Flows, the Linder Hypothesis, and Exchange Risk," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 488-95, August.
  14. Padma Gotur, 1985. "Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Trade: Some Further Evidence (Effets de l'instabilité des taux de change sur le commerce mondial: nouvelles constatations) (Efectos de la inestabilidad de los t," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 32(3), pages 475-512, September.
  15. Peree, Eric & Steinherr, Alfred, 1989. "Exchange rate uncertainty and foreign trade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1241-1264, July.
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