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Exchange-Rate Expectations and Nominal Interest Differentials: A Test ofthe Fisher Hypothesis


  • Robert E. Cumby
  • Maurice Obstfeld


This note tests the hypothesis that nominal interest differentials between similar assets denominated in different currencies can be explained entirely by the expected change in the exchange rate over the holding period. This proposition, often called the "Fisher open" hypothesis or the hypothesis of perfect asset substitutability, has been a major component of recent theories of exchange-rate determination, and has important implications for monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert E. Cumby & Maurice Obstfeld, 1980. "Exchange-Rate Expectations and Nominal Interest Differentials: A Test ofthe Fisher Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 0537, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0537
    Note: ITI IFM

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-853, October.
    2. Upson, Roger B., 1972. "Random Walk and Forward Exchange Rates: A Spectral Analysis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(04), pages 1897-1905, September.
    3. McCormick, Frank, 1979. "Covered Interest Arbitrage: Unexploited Profits? Comment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(2), pages 411-417, April.
    4. Cornell, Bradford, 1977. "Spot rates, forward rates and exchange market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 55-65, August.
    5. Frank McCormick, 1979. "Covered-interest arbitrage: unexploited profits: comment," International Finance Discussion Papers 132, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1979. "The diversifiability of exchange risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 379-393, August.
    7. Grauer, Frederick L. A. & Litzenberger, Robert H. & Stehle, Richard E., 1976. "Sharing rules and equilibrium in an international capital market under uncertainty," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 233-256, June.
    8. Burt, John & Kaen, Fred R & Booth, G Geoffrey, 1977. "Foreign Exchange Market Efficiency under Flexible Exchange Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1325-1330, September.
    9. Richard Meese & Kenneth J. Singleton, 1980. "Rational expectations, risk premia, and the market for spot and forward exchange," International Finance Discussion Papers 165, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    Cited by:

    1. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1983. "Exchange rates, inflation, and the sterilization problem: Germany, 1975-1981," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(1-2), pages 161-189.
    2. Lyons, Richard K., 1988. "Tests of the foreign exchange risk premium using the expected second moments implied by option pricing," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 91-108, March.
    3. Bin, Feng-Shun & Morris, Gay B. & Chen, Dar-Hsin, 2003. "Effects of exchange-rate and interest-rate risk on ADR pricing behavior," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 241-262, August.
    4. Ronald MacDonald, 1985. "Are deviations from purchasing power parity efficient? Some further answers," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 121(4), pages 638-645, December.
    5. Das Gupta, Dipak & Das Gupta, Bejoy & DEC, 1994. "Interest rates in open economies : real interest rate parity, exchange rates, and country risk in industrial and developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1283, The World Bank.
    6. Arusha Cooray, 2003. "Financial integration: some evidence from Australia," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(15), pages 959-966.
    7. Kenneth A. Froot & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1986. "Interpreting Tests of Forward Discount Bias Using Survey Data on Exchange Rate Expectations," NBER Working Papers 1963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Qian, Ying & Varangis, Panos, 1992. "Does exchange rate volatility hinder export growth? Additional evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 911, The World Bank.

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