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The implications of mean-variance optimization for four questions in international macroeconomics

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  • Frankel, Jeffrey A.

Abstract

The hypothesis that investors optimize with respect to the mean and variance of their end-of-period wealth has powerful implications for some standard questions of interest to international macroeconomists. The implications transcend the particular econometric technique used to estimate the return variance-covarjance matrix. (1) For conventional estimates of risk-aversion, substitutability between domestic and foreign securities is close to perfect in the sense that risk premiums are small in magnitude (a few basis points), and thus cannot explain much bias in forward rates. (2) Nevertheless, as long as risk-aversion is not zero, foreign exchange intervention still affects the level of the exchange rate. If interest rates are held constant, the effect is proportionate to the contemporaneous change in asset supplies, and is more-than-proportionate if the expectations of future asset supplies also change. (3) Current account deficits have effects that are comparable to, though smaller in magnitude than,the effects of equal-sized changes in asset supplies through intervention or government borrowing. (4) The perceived tendency for dollar depreciation to be associated with appreciation of the mark against the franc is not consistent with the implication of mean-variance optimization that the franc should bea closer substitute for the dollar than is the mark.
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  • Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1986. "The implications of mean-variance optimization for four questions in international macroeconomics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(1, Supple), pages 53-75, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:5:y:1986:i:1:p:s53-s75
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    1. Cumby, Robert E & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1981. "A Note on Exchange-Rate Expectations and Nominal Interest Differentials: A Test of the Fisher Hypothesis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(3), pages 697-703, June.
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    1. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1989. " Real Exchange Rates and Macroeconomics: A Selective Survey," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 91(2), pages 401-432.
    2. Barry Eichengreen., 1993. "The Crisis in the EMS and the Transition to EMU: An Interim Assessment," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C93-022, University of California at Berkeley.
    3. Karen K. Lewis, 1994. "Puzzles in International Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 4951, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Paolo del Giovane & Alberto Franco Pozzolo, 1998. "The Behaviour of the Dollar and Exchange Rates in Europe: Empirical Evidence and Possible Explanations," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 328, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Fabio C. Bagliano & Andrea Beltratti & Giuseppe Bertola, 1996. "Heterogeneous Behavior in Exchange Rate Crises," NBER Chapters,in: The Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets, pages 229-260 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1991. "Target zones and interest rate variability," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 27-54, August.
    7. Kalyvitis, Sarantis & Skotida, Ifigeneia, 2010. "Some empirical evidence on the effects of U.S. monetary policy shocks on cross exchange rates," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 386-394, August.
    8. Arteta, Carlos & Kamin, Steven B. & Vitanza, Justin, 2011. "The puzzling peso," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1814-1835.
    9. repec:adr:anecst:y:1991:i:24:p:01 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
    11. Zenón Jiménez-Ridruejo Ayuso & Mª Carmen Lorenzo Lago, 1996. "Análisis de variabilidad de la prima de riesgo," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 5, pages 33-57, Junio.
    12. Eichengreen, Barry, 2005. "Europe, the euro and the ECB: Monetary success, fiscal failure," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 427-439, June.
    13. Barry Eichengreen, 2000. "The EMS Crisis in Retrospect," NBER Working Papers 8035, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1985. "International capital mobility and crowding-out in the U.S. economy: imperfect integration of financial markets or of goods markets?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, pages 33-74.
    15. Hodrick, Robert J., 1989. "Risk, uncertainty, and exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 433-459, May.
    16. W A Razzak, 1998. "The forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis in inflation-targeting regimes," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/3, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, revised Aug 1999.
    17. Engel, Charles & Rodrigues, Anthony P, 1989. "Tests of International CAPM with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(2), pages 119-138, April-Jun.
    18. Robert McCauley, 1999. "The Euro and the Dollar, 1998," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 91-133, February.
    19. McCauley, R.N., 1997. "The Euro and the Dollar," Princeton Essays in International Economics 205, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
    20. Tim Bollerslev & Ray Y. Chou & Narayanan Jayaraman & Kenneth F. Kroner - L, 1991. "es modéles ARCH en finance : un point sur la théorie et les résultats empiriques," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 24, pages 1-59.
    21. Fischer Black, 1989. "Equilibrium Exchange Rate Hedging," NBER Working Papers 2947, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Stefan C. Norrbin & F. Pinar Yigit, 2005. "The Robustness of the Link between Volatility and Growth of Output," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 141(2), pages 343-356, July.

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