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Tests of Rational Expectations and No Risk Premium in Forward Exchange Markats

  • David A. Hsieh
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    This paper tests the hypothesis that traders have rational expeatations and charge no risk premium in the forward exchange market. It uses a statistical procedure which is consistent under a large class of heteroscedasticity, and a set of data which takes into account the institutional features of the forward exchange market. The results show that inferences using this procedure are very different from those using the standard assumption of homoscedasticity.

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    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w0843.pdf
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    Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 0843.

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    Date of creation: Jan 1982
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    Publication status: published as Hournal of Interlational Economics, Vol. 12, no.1/2 (1984): 173-184.
    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0843
    Note: ITI IFM
    Contact details of provider: Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
    Phone: 617-868-3900
    Web page: http://www.nber.org
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    1. Roll, Richard & Solnik, Bruno, 1977. "A pure foreign exchange asset pricing model," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 161-179, May.
    2. Richard A. Meese & Kenneth J. Singleton, 1980. "Rational expectations, risk premia, and the market for spot and forward exchange," International Finance Discussion Papers 165, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Grauer, Frederick L. A. & Litzenberger, Robert H. & Stehle, Richard E., 1976. "Sharing rules and equilibrium in an international capital market under uncertainty," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 233-256, June.
    4. Frenkel, Jacob A & Levich, Richard M, 1979. "Covered Interest Arbitrage and Unexploited Profits? Reply," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(2), pages 418-22, April.
    5. Geweke, John F & Feige, Edgar L, 1979. "Some Joint Tests of the Efficiency of Markets for Forward Foreign Exchange," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 61(3), pages 334-41, August.
    6. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
    7. André Farber & Eugene Fama, 1979. "Money, bonds and foreign exchange," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/11356, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    8. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1979. "The diversifiability of exchange risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 379-393, August.
    9. Lars Peter Hansen & Robert J. Hodrick, 1983. "Risk Averse Speculation in the Forward Foreign Exchange Market: An Econometric Analysis of Linear Models," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, pages 113-152 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Stulz, ReneM., 1982. "The forward exchange rate and macroeconomics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3-4), pages 285-299, May.
    11. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October.
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