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Consumption Preferences, Asset Demands, and Distribution Effects in International Financial Markets

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  • Paul R. Krugman

Abstract

This paper is an attempt to examine some of the microeconomic foundations of this last view of the link between current accounts and exchange rata. Several authors, especially Kouri and de Macedo (1978), but also more recently Dornbusch (1980), have sought to justify the portfolio approach in terms of finance theory, deriving asset demands from a mean-variance framework and arguing that differences in the portfolios of different countries explain why changes in the world distribution of wealth affect exchange rates. What I will do in this paper is to argue that, even under seemingly favorable assumptions, these distribution effects nay run the wrong way; that if they run the right way, they will be very weak; and that the incentives for inter-national, portfolio diversification are in any case small, and can be swamped by quite modest transaction costs or other costs to diversification.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul R. Krugman, 1981. "Consumption Preferences, Asset Demands, and Distribution Effects in International Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 0651, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0651
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Don E. Roper, 1975. "The Role of Expected Value Analysis for Speculative Decisions in the Forward Currency Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 89(1), pages 157-169.
    2. Pentti J. K. Kouri & Jorge Braga De Macedo, 1978. "Exchange Rates and the International Adjustments Process," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 9(1), pages 111-158.
    3. J. Huston McCulloch, 1975. "Operational Aspects of the Siegel Paradox," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 89(1), pages 170-172.
    4. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley, 1980. "Exchange Rates and the Current Account," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 960-971, December.
    5. Pentti J.K. Kouri & Jorge B. de Macedo, 1978. "Exchange Rates and the International Adjustment Process," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 488, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lyons, Richard K., 1988. "Tests of the foreign exchange risk premium using the expected second moments implied by option pricing," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 91-108, March.
    2. Backus, David K. & Kehoe, Patrick J., 1989. "On the denomination of government debt : A critique of the portfolio balance approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 359-376, May.
    3. Rene M. Stulz, 1994. "International Portfolio Choice and Asset Pricing: An Integrative Survey," NBER Working Papers 4645, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1986. "The implications of mean-variance optimization for four questions in international macroeconomics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(1, Supple), pages 53-75, March.
    5. Coen, Alain, 2001. "Home bias and international capital asset pricing model with human capital," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(4-5), pages 497-513, December.
    6. Gordon Roger Hall & Gaspar Vitor, 2001. "Home Bias in Portfolios and Taxation of Asset Income," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-30, September.
    7. David W.R. Gruen & Marianne C. Gizycki, 1993. "Explaining Forward Discount Bias: Is it Anchoring?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9307, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    8. Maurico Obstfeld, 2004. "External adjustment," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 140(4), pages 541-568, December.
    9. Murray C. Kemp & Hans-Werner Sinn, 1990. "A Simple Model of Useless Speculation," NBER Working Papers 3513, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Kathryn Dominguez & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1991. "Does foreign exchange intervention matter? disentangling the portfolio and expectations effects for the mark," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
    11. Puri, Tribhuvan N., 1996. "Capital flows and net international investment," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 113-130.
    12. R. Dornbusch, 1982. "Equilibrium and Disequilibrium Exchange Rates," Working papers 309, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    13. Ephraim Clark & Konstantinos Kassimatis, 2013. "International equity flows, marginal conditional stochastic dominance and diversification," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 251-271, February.
    14. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
    15. Baldwin, Richard, 1990. "Re-Interpreting the Failure of Foreign Exchange Market Efficiency Tests: Small Transaction Costs, Big Hysteresis Bands," CEPR Discussion Papers 407, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1982. "Flexible Exchange Rates and Interdependence," NBER Working Papers 1035, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1983. "Estimation of portfolio-balance functions that are mean-variance optimizing : The mark and the dollar," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 315-327, September.
    18. Frankel, Jeffrey & Engel, Charles M., 1984. "Do asset-demand functions optimize over the mean and variance of real returns? A six-currency test," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3-4), pages 309-323, November.
    19. Fischer Black, 1989. "Equilibrium Exchange Rate Hedging," NBER Working Papers 2947, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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