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Nominal Exchange Rate Patterns: Correlationswith Entry, Exit, and Invesment in U.S. Industry

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  • Linda S. Goldberg

Abstract

The view that the strength of the dollar in the early 1980s was associated with persistent restructuring of United States industry is supported by correlations between exchange rate patterns and data on business formation, business failure and sectoral investment in new plant and equipment. Short term trend depreciations of the dollar are associated with reallocation of resources across sectors, while longer term trend depreciations are associated with investment expansions in many sectors of industry. Persistent exchange rate volatility is strongly associated with investment contractions, with this effect weakest during depreciation periods. This suggests a second order effect of depreciation trends: during trend depreciation periods the negative and significant correlation between exchange rate volatility and investment is reduced.

Suggested Citation

  • Linda S. Goldberg, 1990. "Nominal Exchange Rate Patterns: Correlationswith Entry, Exit, and Invesment in U.S. Industry," NBER Working Papers 3249, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3249 Note: ITI IFM
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Giovannini, Alberto, 1988. "Exchange rates and traded goods prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 45-68, February.
    2. Catherine Mann, 1989. "The effects of exchange rate trends and volatility on export prices: Industry examples from Japan, Germany, and the United States," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 125(3), pages 588-618, September.
    3. Robert E. Lipsey & Linda Molinari & Irving B. Kravis, 1991. "Measures of Prices and Price Competitiveness in International Trade in Manufactured Goods," NBER Chapters,in: International Economic Transactions: Issues in Measurement and Empirical Research, pages 144-199 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Abel, Andrew B & Blanchard, Olivier J, 1986. "The Present Value of Profits and Cyclical Movements in Investment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(2), pages 249-273, March.
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    6. Robert E. Lipsey & Mario Schimberni & Robert V. Lindsay, 1988. "Changing Patterns of International Investment in and by the United States," NBER Chapters,in: The United States in the World Economy, pages 475-558 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Kenen, Peter B & Rodrik, Dani, 1986. "Measuring and Analyzing the Effects of Short-term Volatility in Real Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(2), pages 311-315, May.
    8. Stevens, Guy V. G. & Lipsey, Robert E., 1992. "Interactions between domestic and foreign investment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 40-62, February.
    9. Paul R. Krugman & Richard E. Baldwin, 1987. "The Persistence of the U.S. Trade Deficit," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 18(1), pages 1-56.
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    Cited by:

    1. Joshua Aizenman, 1992. "Exchange Rate Flexibility, Volatility, and the Patterns of Domestic and Foreign Direct Investment," NBER Working Papers 3953, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. de Brito, José Brandão & de Mello Sampayo, Felipa, 2002. "The timing and the probability of FDI: an application to the US multinational enterprises," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 A3-4, International Conferences on Panel Data.

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