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The relative importance of national and regional factors in the New York Metropolitan economy

  • Jonathan McCarthy
  • Charles Steindel

This paper explores the connections between broad indicators of economic conditions in the New York Metropolitan area and their national counterparts. Our examination provides two different views of the metropolitan economy. First, as is well known, employment growth in the region over the last seven years has been very poor, both in absolute terms and relative to the nation, suggesting a region in decline. On the other hand, the region's income growth has been considerably better, suggesting a region whose goods and services remain in healthy demand. Some methods of analyzing the data suggest that national and regional variables are more closely connected than they have been in a generation. Notwithstanding this, VAR analysis indicates that regional factors were the initial catalysts for the local recession in the 1990s. However, this analysis also indicates that national developments, in particular the slow growth in employment following the 1990-91 recession, have been important factors behind the persistence of the local recession. This is unlike the experience of the 1970s, when regional factors were primarily responsible for prolonging that recession.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Research Paper with number 9621.

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Date of creation: 1996
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednrp:9621
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  1. Ciccone, Antonio & Hall, Robert E, 1996. "Productivity and the Density of Economic Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(1), pages 54-70, March.
  2. Coulson, N.E. & Rushen, S.F., 1993. "Sources of Fluctuations in the Boston Economy," Papers 4-93-5, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
  3. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1991. "Convergence across States and Regions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1), pages 107-182.
  4. Barro, Robert J & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Convergence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 223-51, April.
  5. Abraham, Katharine G. & Katz, Lawrence F., 1986. "Cyclical Unemployment: Sectoral Shifts or Aggregate Disturbances?," Scholarly Articles 3442781, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  6. Gerald A. Carlino & Robert H. DeFina, 1996. "Does monetary policy have differential regional effects?," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Mar, pages 17-27.
  7. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1992. "Regional Evolutions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(1), pages 1-76.
  8. Lilien, David M, 1982. "Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(4), pages 777-93, August.
  9. David Brauer & Mark Flaherty, 1992. "The New York City recession," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Spr, pages 66-71.
  10. David Brauer, 1993. "A historical perspective on the 1989-92 slow growth period," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sum, pages 1-14.
  11. Todd Clark, 1992. "Business cycle fluctuations in U.S. regions and industries: the roles of national, region-specific, and industry-specific shocks," Research Working Paper 92-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
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