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Government Spending and the Real Exchange Rate: a Cross - Country Perspective

  • Rodrigo Caputo
  • Miguel Fuentes

In this paper we study, from an empirical point of view, the determinants of the real exchange rate (RER). Relative to the vast previous literature on this topic we aim to distinguish the impact of two important components of government expenditure—public investment and transfers—on the RER, which has usually been neglected. Using panel cointegration techniques, we assess the relevance of those variables in the determination of the RER for a wide set of countries from 1980 to 2009. Our results suggest that changes in either government transfers or public investment have an impact on the RER in emerging economies. On one hand, transfers tend to appreciate the RER because they induce an increase in the relative demand for nontraded goods. On the other, an increase in public investment generates an RER depreciation. This result can be explained by the fact that, in this case, there is an increase in the relative productivity in the nontraded sector of the economy. We also study the effect of countries’ net external assets position on the RER and find that it differs markedly between developed and developing countries: this variable has a significant effect only in the case of developing economies.

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Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 655.

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Date of creation: Jan 2012
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:655
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  1. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: an empirical treatment," International Finance Discussion Papers 534, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Choi, Chi-Young & Hu, Ling & Ogaki, Masao, 2008. "Robust estimation for structural spurious regressions and a Hausman-type cointegration test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 327-351, January.
  3. Vahagn Galstyan and Philip R. Lane, 2008. "The Composition of Government Spending and the Real Exchange Rate," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp257, IIIS.
  4. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2007. "On the Rand: Determinants of the South African Exchange Rate," Working Paper Series rwp07-015, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  5. Alfredo Pistelli & Jorge Selaive & Rodrigo Valdés, 2007. "Stocks, Flows and Valuation Effects of Foreign Assets and Liabilities: Do They Matter?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 443, Central Bank of Chile.
  6. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  7. Raimundo Soto & Ibrahim A. Elbadawi, 2007. "Theory and Empirics of Real Exchange Rates in Developing Countries," Documentos de Trabajo 324, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
  8. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Peter C.B. Phillips & Mico Loretan, 1989. "Estimating Long Run Economic Equilibria," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 928, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  10. Saikkonen, Pentti, 1991. "Asymptotically Efficient Estimation of Cointegration Regressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(01), pages 1-21, March.
  11. Luca Antonio Ricci & Jaewoo Lee & Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2008. "Real Exchange Rates and Fundamentals; A Cross-Country Perspective," IMF Working Papers 08/13, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August.
  13. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
  14. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2006. "The External Wealth of Nations Mark II: Revised and Extended Estimates of Foreign Assets and Liabilities, 1970-2004," CEPR Discussion Papers 5644, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Holger C. Wolf & Alberto Giovannini & Jose De Gregorio, 1994. "International Evidenceon Tradables and Nontradables Inflation," IMF Working Papers 94/33, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Claudio Paiva, 2006. "External Adjustment and Equilibrium Exchange Rate in Brazil," IMF Working Papers 06/221, International Monetary Fund.
  17. repec:chb:bcchwp:02 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Charles Engel & Nelson C. Mark & Kenneth D. West, 2008. "Exchange Rate Models Are Not As Bad As You Think," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 381-441 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Scholarly Articles 12491026, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  20. Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. Valdes, 1996. "The Aftermath of Appreciations," NBER Working Papers 5650, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
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  23. Alvaro Aguirre & César Calderón, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments and Economic Performance," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 316, Central Bank of Chile.
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