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Asset Market and Balance of Payments Characteristics: An Eclectic Exchange Rate Model for the Dollar, Mark and Yen

  • Ronald Macdonald


In this paper we use an exchange rate model, which combines asset market characteristics with balance of payments interactions, to examine the nominal effective exchange rates of the German mark, Japanese yen and US dollar for the recent experience with floating exchange rates. Our approach may be interpreted as one which attempts to flesh out the missing links that arise in conditioning an exchange rate solely on relative prices, as occurs in a standard PPP analysis. Amongst the results reported in this paper are: significant, and sensible, long-run relationships for the currencies studied; complex short-run dynamics; a variance decomposition analysis which apportions nominal exchange rate error variances into real and nominal elements. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1999

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Article provided by Springer in its journal Open Economies Review.

Volume (Year): 10 (1999)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 5-29

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Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:10:y:1999:i:1:p:5-29
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  1. Peter B. Clark & Steven A. Symansky & Tamim Bayoumi & Mark P. Taylor, 1994. "Robustness of Equilibrium Exchange Rate Calculations to Alternative Assumptions and Methodologies," IMF Working Papers 94/17, International Monetary Fund.
  2. MacDonald, Ronald, 1993. "Long-Run Purchasing Power Parity: Is It for Real?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 690-95, November.
  3. John Williamson, 1994. "Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 17.
  4. Ronald MacDonald & Mark P. Taylor, 1992. "The Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Rational Expectations, Long-Run Equilibrium and Forecasting," IMF Working Papers 92/34, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Ronald Mac Donald, 1998. "What Do We Really Know About Real Exchange Rates?," Working Papers 28, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  6. Shiller, Robert & Campbell, John, 1988. "Interpreting Cointegrated Models," Scholarly Articles 3221492, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  7. Stockman, A.C., 1988. "Real Exchange Rate Variability Under Pegged And Floating Nominal Exchange Rate Systems: An Equilibrium Theory," RCER Working Papers 128, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  8. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 1993. "Long-run purchasing power parity during the recent float," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 181-192, February.
  9. Ken Froot & Kenneth Rogoff, . "Perspectives on PPP and Long-Run Real Exchange Rates," Working Paper 32027, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  10. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
  11. Hamid Faruqee, 1995. "Long-Run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate: A Stock-Flow Perspective," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(1), pages 80-107, March.
  12. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-28, August.
  13. Hendry, D.F. & Mizon, G.E., 1990. "Evaluating Dynamic Econometric Models By Encompassing The Var," Economics Series Working Papers 99102, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  14. Ronald MacDonald, 1995. "Long-Run Exchange Rate Modeling: A Survey of the Recent Evidence," IMF Working Papers 95/14, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1994. "Identification of the long-run and the short-run structure an application to the ISLM model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 7-36, July.
  16. Michael L. Mussa, 1984. "The Theory of Exchange Rate Determination," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 13-78 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Peter Kugler & Carlos Lenz, 1990. "Multivariate Cointegration Analysis and the Long-run Validity of PPP," Diskussionsschriften dp9004, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
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