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The Monetary Models of the Turkish Lira/U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate: Long-run Relationships, Short-run Dynamics, and Forecasting

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  • IRFAN CIVCIR

Abstract

This article examines four versions of the monetary model for the Turkish lira/U.S. dollar exchange rate. The analysis focuses on two issues. First, we test whether the exchange rate is cointegrated with the long-run determinants predicted by economic theory. The sticky price versions of the monetary model support the hypothesis of cointegration. Then, we construct simultaneous equation systems that incorporate the long-run equilibrium relationships and complex short-run dynamics. The second issue is the ability of the monetary models to forecast the future exchange rate. We show that a fully dynamic out-of-sample forecast from the equilibrium-correcting monetary models significantly outperforms forecasts from random-walk models and differenced vector autoregressive models.

Suggested Citation

  • Irfan Civcir, 2003. "The Monetary Models of the Turkish Lira/U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate: Long-run Relationships, Short-run Dynamics, and Forecasting," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(6), pages 43-63, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:eaeuec:v:41:y:2003:i:6:p:43-63
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    Cited by:

    1. Lee Chin & M. Azali & Zulkornain Yusop & Mohammed Yusoff, 2007. "The monetary model of exchange rate: evidence from The Philippines," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(13), pages 993-997.
    2. Levent KORAP, 2008. "Exchange Rate Determination Of Tl/Us$:A Co-Integration Approach," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 7(1), pages 24-50, May.
    3. Peter Golit & Afees Salisu & Akinwunmi Akintola & Faustina Nsonwu & Itoro Umoren, 2019. "Exchange Rate And Interest Rate Differential In G7 Economies," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 22(3), pages 263-286, October.
    4. Biswajit Maitra, 2010. "Money Supply and Exchange Rate Variations in Sri Lanka in the Independent Float Regime—A Time Domain Study," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 11(1), pages 111-129, March.
    5. Balázs Égert, 2012. "Dutch diease in the post-soviet countries of central and south-west Asia: How contagious is it?," Post-Print hal-01385841, HAL.
    6. UZ AKDOGAN, Idil & HALICIOGLU, Ferda & Demir, Ishak, 2025. "Measuring Currency Risk Premium: The Case of Turkey," MPRA Paper 123742, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Balázs Égert, 2010. "The Impact of Monetary and Commodity Fundamentals, Macro News and Central Bank Communication on the Exchange Rate: Evidence from South Africa," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 21(5), pages 655-677, November.
    8. Olofin, S.O. & Salisu, A.A & Tule, M.K, 2020. "Revised Small Macro-Econometric Model Of The Nigerian Economy," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 20(1), pages 97-116.
    9. Kemal Soyer & Hale Ozgit & Husam Rjoub, 2020. "Applying an Evolutionary Growth Theory for Sustainable Economic Development: The Effect of International Students as Tourists," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-20, January.
    10. Musa, Abdullahi & Salisu, Afees A. & Aliyu, Victoria O. & Mevweroso, Chioma R., 2021. "Analysis of asymmetric response of exchange rate to interest rate differentials: The case of African Big 4," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).

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