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Exchange rate volatility and the mixture of distribution hypothesis

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  • BAUWENS, Luc
  • RIME, Dagfinn
  • SUCARRAT, Genaro

Abstract

This paper sheds new light on the mixture of distribution hypothesis by means of a study of the weekly exchange rate volatility of the Norwegian krone. In line with other studies we find that the impact of information arrival on exchange rate volatility is positive and statiscally significant, and that the hypothesis that an increase in the number of traders reduces exchange rate volatility is not supported. The novelties of our study consist in documenting that the positive impact of information arrival on volatillity is relatively stable across three different exchange rate regimes, and in that the impact is relatively similar for both weekly volatility and weekly realised volatility. It is not given that the former should be the case since exchange rate stabilisation was actively pursued by the central bank in parts of the study period; We also report a case in which undesirable residual properties attained within traditional frameworks are easily removed by applying the log-transformation on volatilities.
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  • BAUWENS, Luc & RIME, Dagfinn & SUCARRAT, Genaro, 2006. "Exchange rate volatility and the mixture of distribution hypothesis," LIDAM Reprints CORE 1788, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  • Handle: RePEc:cor:louvrp:1788
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-005-0005-x
    Note: In : Empirical Economics, 30, 889-911, 2006
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    Cited by:

    1. Francq, Christian & Sucarrat, Genaro, 2017. "An equation-by-equation estimator of a multivariate log-GARCH-X model of financial returns," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 16-32.
    2. Bauwens, Luc & Sucarrat, Genaro, 2010. "General-to-specific modelling of exchange rate volatility: A forecast evaluation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 885-907, October.
    3. repec:imd:wpaper:wp2010-25 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Michael Frömmel & Eyup Kadioglu, 2023. "Impact of trading hours extensions on foreign exchange volatility: intraday evidence from the Moscow exchange," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-23, December.
    5. Munazza Jabeen & Saud Ahmad Khan, 2014. "Modelling Exchange Rate Volatility by Macroeconomic Fundamentals in Pakistan," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 6(2), pages 58-76, September.
    6. POPOVICI, Oana Cristina, 2015. "A Volatility Analysis Of The Euro Currency And The Bond Market," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 19(1), pages 67-79.
    7. Frömmel, Michael & Mende, Alexander & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2008. "Order flows, news, and exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 994-1012, October.
    8. Ewa M. Syczewska, 2014. "The EURPLN, DAX and WIG20: the Granger causality tests before and during the crisis," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 14, pages 93-104.
    9. Dick van Dijk & Haris Munandar & Christian Hafner, 2011. "The euro introduction and noneuro currencies," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1-2), pages 95-116.
    10. Olivier Damette & Stéphane Goutte, 2014. "Tobin tax and trading volume tightening: a reassessment," Working Papers halshs-00926805, HAL.
    11. Damette, Olivier, 2016. "Mixture Distribution Hypothesis And The Impact Of A Tobin Tax On Exchange Rate Volatility: A Reassessment," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(6), pages 1600-1622, September.
    12. Yamani, Ehab, 2023. "Return–volume nexus in financial markets: A survey of research," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    13. Sensoy, Ahmet & Serdengeçti, Süleyman, 2019. "Intraday volume-volatility nexus in the FX markets: Evidence from an emerging market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 1-12.
    14. Ho, Kin-Yip & Shi, Yanlin & Zhang, Zhaoyong, 2018. "Public information arrival, price discovery and dynamic correlations in the Chinese renminbi markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 168-186.
    15. Fayçal Hamdi & Saïd Souam, 2018. "Mixture periodic GARCH models: theory and applications," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1925-1956, December.
    16. Mougoué, Mbodja & Aggarwal, Raj, 2011. "Trading volume and exchange rate volatility: Evidence for the sequential arrival of information hypothesis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2690-2703, October.
    17. Olivier Damette & St鰨ane Goutte, 2015. "Tobin tax and trading volume tightening: a reassessment," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(29), pages 3124-3141, June.
    18. Sucarrat, Genaro & Escribano, Álvaro, 2010. "The power log-GARCH model," UC3M Working papers. Economics we1013, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    19. Olivier Damette & Beum-Jo Park, 2015. "Tobin Tax and Volatility: A Threshold Quantile Autoregressive Regression Framework," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(5), pages 996-1022, November.
    20. Jakree Koosakul & Ilhyock Shim, 2017. "The beneficial aspect of FX volatility for market liquidity," BIS Working Papers 629, Bank for International Settlements.
    21. Francis Bismans & Olivier Damette, 2012. "La taxe Tobin : une synthèse des travaux basés sur la théorie des jeux et l’économétrie," Working Papers of BETA 2012-09, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    22. Angelo Ranaldo & Paolo Santucci de Magistris, 2018. "Trading Volume, Illiquidity and Commonalities in FX Markets," Working Papers on Finance 1823, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance, revised Oct 2019.
    23. repec:erh:journl:v:6:y:2014:i:2:p:59-77 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Rime, Dagfinn & Sucarrat, Genaro, 2007. "Exchange rate variability, market activity and heterogeneity," UC3M Working papers. Economics we077039, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.

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    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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