IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_2100.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Monetary Policy, Vagabonding Liquidity and Bursting Bubbles in New and Emerging Markets – An Overinvestment View

Author

Listed:
  • Andreas Hoffmann
  • Gunther Schnabl

Abstract

Credit booms have globally fuelled hikes in stock, raw material and real estate markets which have culminated in the recent US subprime market crisis. We explain the global asset market booms since the mid 1980s based on the overinvestment theories of Hayek, Wicksell and Schumpeter. We argue that ample liquidity supply originating in the large industrialized countries has contributed to overinvestment cycles in Japan, East Asia, the new markets in the industrial countries and many emerging market economies. Expansionary monetary policies in response to the burst of bubbles are argued to have contributed to vagabonding bubbles around the globe.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas Hoffmann & Gunther Schnabl, 2007. "Monetary Policy, Vagabonding Liquidity and Bursting Bubbles in New and Emerging Markets – An Overinvestment View," CESifo Working Paper Series 2100, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2100
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp2100.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ricardo J. Caballero & Takeo Hoshi & Anil K. Kashyap, 2008. "Zombie Lending and Depressed Restructuring in Japan," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 1943-1977, December.
    2. Peter Backé & Balázs Égert, 2006. "Credit Growth in Central and Eastern Europe: New (Over)Shooting Stars?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 112-139.
    3. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2006. "China's Exchange Rate and International Adjustment in Wages, Prices and Interest Rates: Japan Déjà Vu?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 52(2), pages 276-303, June.
    4. Michael M. Hutchison & Frank Westermann (ed.), 2006. "Japan's Great Stagnation: Financial and Monetary Policy Lessons for Advanced Economies," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 9780262083478, April.
    5. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2006. "The East Asian Dollar Standard, Fear of Floating, and Original Sin," Chapters, in: Volbert Alexander & Hans-Helmut Kotz (ed.), Global Divergence in Trade, Money and Policy, chapter 3, pages 45-71, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Eric Hillebrand & Gunther Schnabl, 2008. "A structural break in the effects of Japanese foreign exchange intervention on yen/dollar exchange rate volatility," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 389-401, December.
    7. Gerhard Illing, 2001. "Financial Fragility, Bubbles and Monetary Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 449, CESifo.
    8. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2000. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging-Market Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 105-109, May.
    9. Gunther Schnabl, 2009. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Growth in Emerging Europe and East Asia," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 565-587, September.
    10. Richard Herring & Susan Wachter, "undated". "Bubbles in Real Estate Markets," Zell/Lurie Center Working Papers 402, Wharton School Samuel Zell and Robert Lurie Real Estate Center, University of Pennsylvania.
    11. McKinnon, Ronald I., 2004. "The East Asian dollar standard," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 325-330.
    12. Ronald I. McKinnon & Kenichi Ohno, 1997. "Dollar and Yen: Resolving Economic Conflict between the United States and Japan," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262133350, April.
    13. Ben S. Bernanke & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1997. "Inflation Targeting: A New Framework for Monetary Policy?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 97-116, Spring.
    14. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. "Exchange rates and financial fragility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 329-368.
    15. Michael M. Hutchison & Takatoshi Ito & Frank Westermann, 2005. "The Great Japanese Stagnation: Lessons for Industrial Countries," EPRU Working Paper Series 05-13, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    16. Stanley Fischer, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 3-24, Spring.
    17. Illing, Gerhard, . "Financial Fragility, Bubbles and Monetary Policy," Chapters in Economics,, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    18. Mr. Christoph Duenwald & Nikolay Gueorguiev & Ms. Andrea Schaechter, 2005. "Too Much of a Good Thing? Credit Booms in Transition Economies: The Cases of Bulgaria, Romania, and Ukraine," IMF Working Papers 2005/128, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Greiber, Claus & Setzer, Ralph, 2007. "Money and housing: evidence for the euro area and the US," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,12, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    20. Schnabl, Gunther, 2008. "Exchange rate volatility and growth in small open economies at the EMU periphery," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 70-91, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gunther Schnabl, 2009. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Growth in Emerging Europe and East Asia," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 565-587, September.
    2. Schnabl, Gunther, 2008. "Exchange rate volatility and growth in small open economies at the EMU periphery," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 70-91, March.
    3. Arratibel, Olga & Furceri, Davide & Martin, Reiner & Zdzienicka, Aleksandra, 2011. "The effect of nominal exchange rate volatility on real macroeconomic performance in the CEE countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 261-277, June.
    4. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "The Return to Soft Dollar Pegging in East Asia: Mitigating Conflicted Virtue," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 169-201, July.
    5. Arratibel, Olga & Martin, Reiner & Furceri, Davide, 2008. "Real convergence in Central and Eastern European EU Member States: which role for exchange rate volatility?," Working Paper Series 929, European Central Bank.
    6. Andreas Hoffmann, 2010. "An Overinvestment Cycle In Central And Eastern Europe?," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 711-734, November.
    7. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    8. Guy Debelle, 2001. "The Case for Inflation Targeting in East Asian Countries," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: David Gruen & John Simon (ed.),Future Directions for Monetary Policies in East Asia, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    9. DANNE, Christian & SCHNABL, Gunther, 2008. "A role model for China? Exchange rate flexibility and monetary policy in Japan," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 183-196, June.
    10. Hwee Kwan Chow & Peter Nicholas Kriz & Roberto S. Mariano & Augustine H H Tan, 2007. "Financial Liberalization and Monetary Policy Cooperation in East Asia," Working Papers 03-2007, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
    11. Brahim Gaies & Stéphane Goutte & Khaled Guesmi, 2019. "Does Financial Globalization Still Spur Growth In Emerging And Developing Countries? Considering Exchange Rate Volatility'S Effects," Working Papers hal-01968082, HAL.
    12. Gunther Schnabl, 2006. "The Evolution of the East Asian Currency Baskets – Still Undisclosed and Changing," CESifo Working Paper Series 1873, CESifo.
    13. Hwee Kwan Chow & Peter N. Kriz & Roberto S. Mariano & Augustine H. H. Tan, 2007. "Financial Liberalization and Monetary Policy Cooperation in East Asia1," Finance Working Papers 21916, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    14. Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano, 2009. "Impact of Oil Price Shock and Exchange Rate Volatility on Economic Growth in Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation," MPRA Paper 16319, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Jun 2009.
    15. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199653126.
    16. Frommel, Michael & Schobert, Franziska, 2006. "Exchange rate regimes in Central and East European countries: Deeds vs. words," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 467-483, September.
    17. Gunther Schnabl & Kristina Spantig, 2016. "(De)Stabilizing Exchange Rate Strategies In East Asian Monetary And Economic Integration," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(02), pages 1-24, June.
    18. Patricia Amalia MERCEA (HANDRO), 2020. "Exchange Rate Regime And Macroeconomic Stability. A Literature Survey," Contemporary Economy Journal, Constantin Brancoveanu University, vol. 5(1), pages 67-71.
    19. Gaies, Brahim & Goutte, Stéphane & Guesmi, Khaled, 2020. "Does financial globalization still spur growth in emerging and developing countries? Considering exchange rates," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    20. Brahim Gaies & Stéphane Goutte & Khaled Guesmi, 2019. "Does Financial Globalization Still Spur Growth In Developing Countries? Considering Exchange Rate Volatility," Working Papers halshs-02175361, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    bubbles; boom-bust cycles; Hayek; Wicksell; Schumpeter; emerging markets; capital flows; overinvestment theories;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B53 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches - - - Austrian
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2100. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.