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Credit growth in Central and Eastern Europe: new (over)shooting stars?

Author

Listed:
  • Égert, Balázs
  • Backé, Peter
  • Zumer, Tina

Abstract

This paper analyzes the equilibrium level of private credit to GDP in 11 Central and Eastern European countries in order to see whether the high credit growth recently observed in some of these countries led to above equilibrium private credit-to-GDP levels. We use estimation results obtained for a panel of small open OECD economies (out-of-sample panel) to derive the equilibrium credit level for a panel of transition economies (in-sample panel). We opt for this (out-of-sample) approach because the coefficient estimates for transition economies are fairly unstable. We show that there is a large amount of uncertainty to determine the equilibrium level of private credit. Yet our results indicate that a number of countries are very close or even above the estimated equilibrium levels, whereas others are still well below the equilibrium level. JEL Classification: C31, C33, E44, G21

Suggested Citation

  • Égert, Balázs & Backé, Peter & Zumer, Tina, 2006. "Credit growth in Central and Eastern Europe: new (over)shooting stars?," Working Paper Series 687, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2006687
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    credit growth; credit to the private sector; equilibrium level of credit; initial undershooting; transition economies;

    JEL classification:

    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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