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Credit Growth and Capital Buffers: Empirical Evidence from Central and Eastern European Countries

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  • Adam Gersl
  • Jakub Seidler

Abstract

Excessive credit growth is often considered to be an indicator of future problems in the financial sector. This paper examines the issue of how to determine whether the observed level of private sector credit is excessive in the context of the “countercyclical capital buffer†, a macroprudential tool proposed in the new regulatory framework of Basel III by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. An empirical analysis of selected Central and Eastern European countries, including the Czech Republic, provides alternative estimates of excessive private credit and shows that the HP filter calculation proposed by the Basel Committee is not necessarily a suitable indicator of excessive credit growth for converging countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam Gersl & Jakub Seidler, 2011. "Credit Growth and Capital Buffers: Empirical Evidence from Central and Eastern European Countries," Research and Policy Notes 2011/02, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:cnb:rpnrpn:2011/02
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    6. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    7. Andrea Gerali & Stefano Neri & Luca Sessa & Federico M. Signoretti, 2010. "Credit and Banking in a DSGE Model of the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 107-141, September.
    8. Ceyla Pazarbasioglu & Gudrun Johnsen & Paul Louis Ceriel Hilbers & Inci Ötker, 2005. "Assessing and Managing Rapid Credit Growth and the Role of Supervisory and Prudential Policies," IMF Working Papers 05/151, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Markus Eller & Michael Frömmel & Nora Srzentic, 2010. "Private Sector Credit in CESEE: Long-Run Relationships and Short-Run Dynamics," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 50-78.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tomas Adam & Robert Ambrisko & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Sona Benecka & Jan Bruha & Vilma Dingova & Dana Hajkova & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & David Kocourek & Lubos Komarek & Zlat, 2014. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2014," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, number as14 edited by Kamila Kulhava & Jakub Mateju.
    2. Carlos Serrano-Cinca & Yolanda Fuertes-Callén & Begoña Gutiérrez-Nieto & Beatriz Cuellar-Fernández, 2014. "Path modelling to bankruptcy: causes and symptoms of the banking crisis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(31), pages 3798-3811, November.
    3. Detken, Carsten & Peltonen, Tuomas & Schudel, Willem & Behn, Markus, 2013. "Setting countercyclical capital buffers based on early warning models: would it work?," Working Paper Series 1604, European Central Bank.
    4. Tomas Adam & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Vojtech Belling & Sona Benecka & Jan Bruha & Kamil Galuscak & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Kamila Kulhava , 2015. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2015," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, number as15 edited by Kamila Kulhava & Lucie Matejkova.
    5. repec:ijc:ijcjou:y:2017:q:4:a:5 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Milan Šimáček, 2014. "Systemic Risk Indicator," Český finanční a účetní časopis, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2014(4), pages 31-42.
    7. repec:kap:empiri:v:44:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s10663-016-9338-2 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Markus Behn & Carsten Detken & Tuomas Peltonen & Willem Schudel, 2017. "Predicting Vulnerabilities in the EU Banking Sector: The Role of Global and Domestic Factors," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(4), pages 147-189, December.
    9. Tomas Adam & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Jan Bruha & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & David Kocourek & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Kamila Kulhava & Petr Kral & Ivana Kubicova & Ji, 2013. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2013," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, number as13 edited by Jakub Mateju & Kamila Kulhava.
    10. Miroslav Plasil & Jakub Seidler & Petr Hlavac & Tomas Konecny, 2014. "An Indicator of the Financial Cycle in the Czech Economy," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes,in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2013/2014, chapter 0, pages 118-127 Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    11. Tomas Adam & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Kamil Galuscak & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & Narcisa Liliana Kadlcakova & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Petr Kral & Ivana Kubicova & Ji, 2012. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2012," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, number as12 edited by Romana Zamazalova & Jakub Mateju.
    12. Carsten Detken & Olaf Weeken & Lucia Alessi & Diana Bonfim & Miguel M. Boucinha & Christian Castro & Sebastian Frontczak & Gaston Giordana & Julia Giese & Nadya Jahn & Jan Kakes & Benjamin Klaus & Jan, 2014. "Operationalising the countercyclical capital buffer: indicator selection, threshold identification and calibration options," ESRB Occasional Paper Series 05, European Systemic Risk Board.
    13. Branimir Jovanovic & Egzona Hani & Ljupka Georgievska, 2014. "Post-Crisis Credit Slowdown in South-East Europe – Return to Normality?," Working Papers 2014-01, National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Basel regulation; credit growth; financial crisis countercyclical buffer.;

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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