Setting countercyclical capital buffers based on early warning models: would it work?
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Note: 229418
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998.
"Leading Indicators of Currency Crises,"
IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
- Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997. "Leading indicators of currency crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1852, The World Bank.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," MPRA Paper 6981, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999.
"The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Las crisis gemelas: las causas de los problemas bancarios y de balanza de pagos [The twin crises: Te causes of banking and balance of payments problems]," MPRA Paper 13842, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Drehmann, Mathias & Juselius, Mikael, 2014.
"Evaluating early warning indicators of banking crises: Satisfying policy requirements,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 759-780.
- Mathias Drehmann, 2013. "Evaluating early warning indicators of banking crises: Satisfying policy requirements," BIS Working Papers 421, Bank for International Settlements.
- Sarlin, Peter, 2013.
"On policymakers’ loss functions and the evaluation of early warning systems,"
Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 1-7.
- Sarlin, Peter, 2013. "On policymakers' loss function and the evaluation of early warning systems," Working Paper Series 1509, European Central Bank.
- Andrew Berg & Eduardo Borensztein & Catherine Pattillo, 2005. "Assessing Early Warning Systems: How Have They Worked in Practice?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(3), pages 1-5.
- Babecký, Jan & Havránek, Tomáš & Matějů, Jakub & Rusnák, Marek & Šmídková, Kateřina & Vašíček, Bořek, 2014.
"Banking, debt, and currency crises in developed countries: Stylized facts and early warning indicators,"
Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 1-17.
- Šmídková, Kateřina & Babecký, Jan & Havránek, Tomáš & Matĕjů, Jakub & Rusnák, Marek & Vašíček, Bořek, 2012. "Banking, debt and currency crises: early warning indicators for developed countries," Working Paper Series 1485, European Central Bank.
- Jan Babecký & Tomáš Havránek & Jakub Mateju & Marek Rusnák & Katerina Šmídková & Borek Vašícek, 2012. "Banking, Debt, and Currency Crises: Early Warning Indicators for Developed Countries," Working Papers IES 2012/20, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jul 2012.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999.
"The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Fabian Valencia & Luc Laeven, 2008. "Systemic Banking Crises; A New Database," IMF Working Papers 2008/224, International Monetary Fund.
- Alessi, Lucia & Detken, Carsten, 2011. "Quasi real time early warning indicators for costly asset price boom/bust cycles: A role for global liquidity," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 520-533, September.
- Rochelle M. Edge & Ralf R. Meisenzahl, 2011. "The unreliability of credit-to-GDP ratio gaps in real-time: Implications for countercyclical capital buffers," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-37, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011.
"From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1676-1706, August.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis," NBER Working Papers 15795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003.
"Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
- Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "IPSHIN: RATS procedure to implement Im, Pesaran and Shin panel unit root test," Statistical Software Components RTS00098, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
- Kaminsky, Graciela L., 2006. "Currency crises: Are they all the same?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 503-527, April.
- Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2013.
"Banking crises: An equal opportunity menace,"
Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4557-4573.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2008. "Banking Crises: An Equal Opportunity Menace," NBER Working Papers 14587, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "Banking Crises: An Equal Opportunity Menace," CEPR Discussion Papers 7131, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Joon Y. Park & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2000.
"Nonstationary Binary Choice,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1249-1280, September.
- Peter C.B. Phillips & Joon Y. Park, 1999. "Nonstationary Binary Choice," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1223, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Rafael Repullo & Jesús Saurina, 2011.
"The Countercyclical Capital Buffer of Basel III: A Critical Assessment,"
Working Papers
wp2011_1102, CEMFI, revised Jun 2011.
- Repullo, Rafael & Saurina, Jesús, 2011. "The Countercyclical Capital Buffer of Basel III: A Critical Assessment," CEPR Discussion Papers 8304, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996.
"Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment,"
Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: an empirical treatment," International Finance Discussion Papers 534, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Bussiere, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2006.
"Towards a new early warning system of financial crises,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 953-973, October.
- Fratzscher, Marcel & Bussière, Matthieu, 2002. "Towards a new early warning system of financial crises," Working Paper Series 145, European Central Bank.
- Fratzscher, Marcel & Matthieu Bussiere, 2003. "Towards A New Early Warning System of Financial Crises," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 81, Royal Economic Society.
- Barrell, Ray & Davis, E. Philip & Karim, Dilruba & Liadze, Iana, 2010.
"Bank regulation, property prices and early warning systems for banking crises in OECD countries,"
Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 2255-2264, September.
- Iana Liadze & Ray Barrell & Professor E. Philip Davis, 2009. "Bank regulation, property prices and early warning systems for banking crises in OECD countries," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 330, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
- Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Leonardo Gambacorta & Gabriel Jiminez & Carlos Trucharte, 2010. "Countercyclical capital buffers: exploring options," BIS Working Papers 317, Bank for International Settlements.
- Ai, Chunrong & Norton, Edward C., 2003. "Interaction terms in logit and probit models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 123-129, July.
- E. Philip Davis & Dilruba Karim, 2008. "Could Early Warning Systems Have Helped To Predict the Sub-Prime Crisis?," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 206(1), pages 35-47, October.
- Adam Gersl & Jakub Seidler, 2011. "Credit Growth and Capital Buffers: Empirical Evidence from Central and Eastern European Countries," Research and Policy Notes 2011/02, Czech National Bank.
- Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2011.
"Anchoring Countercyclical Capital Buffers: The role of Credit Aggregates,"
International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(4), pages 189-240, December.
- Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2011. "Anchoring countercyclical capital buffers: the role of credit aggregates," BIS Working Papers 355, Bank for International Settlements.
- Fabian Valencia & Luc Laeven, 2012. "Systemic Banking Crises Database; An Update," IMF Working Papers 2012/163, International Monetary Fund.
- Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 81-109, March.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Markus Behn & Carsten Detken & Tuomas Peltonen & Willem Schudel, 2017.
"Predicting Vulnerabilities in the EU Banking Sector: The Role of Global and Domestic Factors,"
International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(4), pages 147-189, December.
- Behn, Markus & Detken, Carsten & Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Schudel, Willem, 2016. "Predicting vulnerabilities in the EU banking sector: the role of global and domestic factors," ESRB Working Paper Series 29, European Systemic Risk Board.
- Schudel, Willem, 2015. "Shifting horizons: assessing macro trends before, during, and following systemic banking crises," Working Paper Series 1766, European Central Bank.
- Lainà, Patrizio & Nyholm, Juho & Sarlin, Peter, 2015.
"Leading indicators of systemic banking crises: Finland in a panel of EU countries,"
Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 18-35.
- Lainà, Patrizio & Nyholm, Juho & Sarlin, Peter, 2014. "Leading indicators of systemic banking crises: Finland in a panel of EU countries," Research Discussion Papers 14/2014, Bank of Finland.
- Sarlin, Peter & Laina, Patrizio & Nyholm, Juho, 2015. "Leading indicators of systemic banking crises: Finland in a panel of EU countries," Working Paper Series 1758, European Central Bank.
- Babecký, Jan & Havránek, Tomáš & Matějů, Jakub & Rusnák, Marek & Šmídková, Kateřina & Vašíček, Bořek, 2014.
"Banking, debt, and currency crises in developed countries: Stylized facts and early warning indicators,"
Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 1-17.
- Jan Babecký & Tomáš Havránek & Jakub Mateju & Marek Rusnák & Katerina Šmídková & Borek Vašícek, 2012. "Banking, Debt, and Currency Crises: Early Warning Indicators for Developed Countries," Working Papers IES 2012/20, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jul 2012.
- Šmídková, Kateřina & Babecký, Jan & Havránek, Tomáš & Matĕjů, Jakub & Rusnák, Marek & Vašíček, Bořek, 2012. "Banking, debt and currency crises: early warning indicators for developed countries," Working Paper Series 1485, European Central Bank.
- Hamdaoui, Mekki, 2016. "Are systemic banking crises in developed and developing countries predictable?," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 37, pages 114-138.
- Kauko, Karlo, 2014. "How to foresee banking crises? A survey of the empirical literature," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 289-308.
- Mikkel Hermansen & Oliver Röhn, 2017.
"Economic resilience: The usefulness of early warning indicators in OECD countries,"
OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2016(1), pages 9-35.
- Mikkel Hermansen & Oliver Röhn, 2015. "Economic resilience: The usefulness of early warning indicators in OECD countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1250, OECD Publishing.
- André K. Anundsen & Karsten Gerdrup & Frank Hansen & Kasper Kragh‐Sørensen, 2016.
"Bubbles and Crises: The Role of House Prices and Credit,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1291-1311, November.
- André K. Anundsen & Frank Hansen & Karsten Gerdrup & Kasper Kragh-Sørensen, 2014. "Bubbles and crises: The role of house prices and credit," Working Paper 2014/14, Norges Bank.
- Alessi, Lucia & Detken, Carsten, 2018.
"Identifying excessive credit growth and leverage,"
Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 215-225.
- Detken, Carsten & Alessi, Lucia, 2014. "Identifying excessive credit growth and leverage," Working Paper Series 1723, European Central Bank.
- Markus Holopainen & Peter Sarlin, 2015. "Toward robust early-warning models: A horse race, ensembles and model uncertainty," Papers 1501.04682, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2016.
- Mark Joy & Marek Rusnák & Kateřina Šmídková & Bořek Vašíček, 2017.
"Banking and Currency Crises: Differential Diagnostics for Developed Countries,"
International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 44-67, January.
- Mark Joy & Marek Rusnak & Katerina Smidkova & Borek Vasicek, 2014. "Banking and Currency Crises: Differential Diagnostics for Developed Countries," Working Papers 2014/16, Czech National Bank.
- Šmídková, Kateřina & Joy, Mark & Rusnák, Marek & Vašíček, Bořek, 2015. "Banking and currency crises: differential diagnostics for developed countries," Working Paper Series 1810, European Central Bank.
- Betz, Frank & Oprică, Silviu & Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Sarlin, Peter, 2014.
"Predicting distress in European banks,"
Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 225-241.
- Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Sarlin, Peter & Betz, Frank & Opricǎ, Silviu, 2013. "Predicting distress in European banks," Working Paper Series 1597, European Central Bank.
- Caggiano, Giovanni & Calice, Pietro & Leonida, Leone & Kapetanios, George, 2016. "Comparing logit-based early warning systems: Does the duration of systemic banking crises matter?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 104-116.
- V. Coudert & J. Idier, 2016. "An Early Warning System for Macro-prudential Policy in France," Working papers 609, Banque de France.
- Sondermann, David & Zorell, Nico, 2019. "A macroeconomic vulnerability model for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2306, European Central Bank.
- Mathonnat, Clément & Minea, Alexandru, 2018.
"Financial development and the occurrence of banking crises,"
Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 344-354.
- Clément Mathonnat & Alexandru Minea, 2018. "Financial development and the occurrence of banking crises," Post-Print hal-02072363, HAL.
- Babecký, Jan & Havránek, Tomáš & Matějů, Jakub & Rusnák, Marek & Šmídková, Kateřina & Vašíček, Bořek, 2013.
"Leading indicators of crisis incidence: Evidence from developed countries,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 1-19.
- Babecký, Jan & Havránek, Tomáš & Matĕjů, Jakub & Rusnák, Marek & Šmídková, Kateřina & Vašíček, Bořek, 2012. "Leading indicators of crisis incidence: evidence from developed countries," Working Paper Series 1486, European Central Bank.
- Peiwan Wang & Lu Zong & Ye Ma, 2019. "An Integrated Early Warning System for Stock Market Turbulence," Papers 1911.12596, arXiv.org.
- Fendel Ralf & Stremmel Hanno, 2016. "Characteristics of Banking Crises: A Comparative Study with Geographical Contagion," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 236(3), pages 349-388, May.
- Antunes, António & Bonfim, Diana & Monteiro, Nuno & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M., 2018.
"Forecasting banking crises with dynamic panel probit models,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 249-275.
- António R. Antunes & Diana Bonfim & Nuno Monteiro & Paulo M.M. Rodrigues, 2016. "Forecasting banking crises with dynamic panel probit models," Working Papers w201613, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
More about this item
Keywords
Banking crises; Basel III; countercyclical capital buffer; CRD IV; early warning model; financial regulation;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
- G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
- G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-BAN-2013-11-16 (Banking)
- NEP-CBA-2013-11-16 (Central Banking)
- NEP-RMG-2013-11-16 (Risk Management)
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20131604. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Official Publications). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.