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Setting countercyclical capital buffers based on early warning models: would it work?

Author

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  • Detken, Carsten
  • Peltonen, Tuomas
  • Schudel, Willem
  • Behn, Markus

Abstract

This paper assesses the usefulness of private credit variables and other macrofinancial and banking sector indicators for the setting of Basel III / CRD IV countercyclical capital buffers (CCBs) in a multivariate early warning model framework, using data for 23 EU Members States from 1982 Q2 to 2012 Q3. We find that in addition to credit variables, other domestic and global financial factors such as equity and house prices as well as banking sector variables help to predict vulnerable states of the economy in EU Member States. We therefore suggest that policy makers take a broad approach in their analytical models supporting CCB policy measures. JEL Classification: G01, G21, G28

Suggested Citation

  • Detken, Carsten & Peltonen, Tuomas & Schudel, Willem & Behn, Markus, 2013. "Setting countercyclical capital buffers based on early warning models: would it work?," Working Paper Series 1604, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20131604
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Banking crises; Basel III; countercyclical capital buffer; CRD IV; early warning model; financial regulation;

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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