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How to foresee banking crises? A survey of the empirical literature

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  • Kauko, Karlo

Abstract

A survey of the empirical literature on early warning indicators of banking crises is presented. Descriptive analyses have been published for decades, but cross-national panel data analyses have only been performed since the late 1990s. More recently, the severity of the subprime-Lehman crisis has been compared across countries. Most findings corroborate the view that during a typical build-up phase, banks borrow internationally to finance domestic lending, boosting the current account deficit and causing a real estate bubble. Increasing debt and imbalances lead to a crisis. Both developing and developed countries have experienced these kinds of boom-bust cycles.

Suggested Citation

  • Kauko, Karlo, 2014. "How to foresee banking crises? A survey of the empirical literature," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 289-308.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:38:y:2014:i:3:p:289-308
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2014.01.001
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    Keywords

    Banking crisis; Financial crisis; Early warning; Financial instability;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative

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