Does inequality lead to a financial crisis?
The recent global crisis has sparked interest in the relationship between income inequality, credit booms, and financial crises. Rajan (2010) and Kumhof and Rancière (2011) propose that rising inequality led to a credit boom and eventually to a financial crisis in the US in the first decade of the 21st century as it did in the 1920s. Data from 14 advanced countries between 1920 and 2000 suggest these are not general relationships. Credit booms heighten the probability of a banking crisis, but we find no evidence that a rise in top income shares leads to credit booms. Instead, low interest rates and economic expansions are the only two robust determinants of credit booms in our data set. Anecdotal evidence from US experience in the 1920s and in the years up to 2007 and from other countries does not support the inequality, credit, crisis nexus. Rather, it points back to a familiar boom-bust pattern of declines in interest rates, strong growth, rising credit, asset price booms and crises.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Romain Ranciere & Michael Kumhof, 2010.
"Inequality, Leverage and Crises,"
IMF Working Papers
10/268, International Monetary Fund.
- Michael Bordo & Barry Eichengreen & Daniela Klingebiel & Maria Soledad Martinez-Peria, 2001. "Is the crisis problem growing more severe?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 51-82, 04.
- Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2009.
"Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles and Financial Crises, 1870-2008,"
NBER Working Papers
15512, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1029-61, April.
- Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M., 2009. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," CEPR Discussion Papers 7570, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Mishkin, Frederic S., 1978. "The Household Balance Sheet and the Great Depression," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(04), pages 918-937, December.
- Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2008.
"An anatomy of credit booms: evidence from macro aggregates and micro data,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
936, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2008. "An Anatomy Of Credit Booms: Evidence From Macro Aggregates And Micro Data," NBER Working Papers 14049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marco Terrones & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2008. "An Anatomy of Credit Booms; Evidence From Macro Aggregates and Micro Data," IMF Working Papers 08/226, International Monetary Fund.
- Attanasio, Orazio P & Weber, Guglielmo, 1994. "The UK Consumption Boom of the Late 1980s: Aggregate Implications of Microeconomic Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(427), pages 1269-1302, November.
- Roine, Jesper & Vlachos, Jonas & Waldenström, Daniel, 2009.
"The long-run determinants of inequality: What can we learn from top income data?,"
Journal of Public Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 93(7-8), pages 974-988, August.
- Roine, Jesper & Vlachos, Jonas & Waldenström, Daniel, 2007. "The Long-run Determinants of Inequality: What Can We Learn from Top Income Data?," Working Paper Series 721, Research Institute of Industrial Economics, revised 30 Apr 2008.
- Eugene N. White, 2009.
"Lessons from the Great American Real Estate Boom and Bust of the 1920s,"
NBER Working Papers
15573, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Eugene N. White, 2013. "Lessons from the Great American Real Estate Boom and Bust of the 1920s," NBER Chapters, in: Housing and Mortgage Markets in Historical Perspective, pages 115-158 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Martha L. Olney, 1999. "Avoiding Default: The Role Of Credit In The Consumption Collapse Of 1930," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(1), pages 319-335, February.
- Olney, Martha L., 1989. "Credit as a Production-Smoothing Device: The Case of Automobiles, 1913–1938," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(02), pages 377-391, June.
- Barlevy, Gadi & Tsiddon, Daniel, 2004.
"Earnings Inequality and the Business Cycle,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
4451, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1999.
"Monetary policy and asset price volatility,"
Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole,
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 77-128.
- Anthony B. Atkinson & Thomas Piketty & Emmanuel Saez, 2011.
"Top Incomes in the Long Run of History,"
Journal of Economic Literature,
American Economic Association, vol. 49(1), pages 3-71, March.
- Bordo, Michael D & Jeanne, Olivier, 2002.
"Monetary Policy and Asset Prices: Does 'Benign Neglect' Make Sense?,"
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(2), pages 139-64, Summer.
- Olivier Jeanne & Michael D. Bordo, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Asset Prices; Does "Benign Neglect" Make Sense?," IMF Working Papers 02/225, International Monetary Fund.
- James Lothian, 2011. "Why Money Matters: A Fourth Natural Experiment," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 179-187, April.
- Philip Lowe & Claudio Borio, 2002. "Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus," BIS Working Papers 114, Bank for International Settlements.
- Wojciech Kopczuk & Emmanuel Saez & Jae Song, 2010. "Earnings Inequality and Mobility in the United States: Evidence from Social Security Data since 1937," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 125(1), pages 91-128, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:31:y:2012:i:8:p:2147-2161. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.