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Beyond Bubbles: The Role of Asset Prices in Early-Warning Indicators

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  • Esteban Gómez

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  • Sandra Rozo

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Abstract

Asset prices have recently become a common topic in economic debate. Nevertheless, much time has been spent in determining if they effectively exhibit a bubble component, and not in examining whether asset prices contain relevant information concerning future market developments. This paper is an effort in this direction, aimed towards the construction of early-warning indicators for Colombia using financial and real variables. Results show evidence to support that there is relevant information embedded in these series, as all indicators (except the new housing price indicator) show a significant deviation for the year(s) prior to the 98-99 crisis. Additionally, the exercises here conducted show that the performance of asset price indicators is enhanced by including credit and investment. When the early-warning indicators are on, the role of the policy maker should be more active in the market; not necessarily in terms of altering interest rates, but in communicating with market agents, promoting portfolio diversification and urging financial agents to make the best use of the risk-management tools that are available to them.

Suggested Citation

  • Esteban Gómez & Sandra Rozo, 2008. "Beyond Bubbles: The Role of Asset Prices in Early-Warning Indicators," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 26(56), pages 114-148, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:ensayo:v:26:y:2008:i:56:p:114-148
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    1. Dezhbakhsh, Hashem & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli, 1990. "On the Presence of Speculative Bubbles in Stock Prices," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(1), pages 101-112, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Seoung Hwan Suh & Kabsung Kim, 2014. "Global financial crisis and early warning system of Korean housing market," Chapters, in: Susan Wachter & Man Cho & Moon Joong Tcha (ed.), The Global Financial Crisis and Housing, chapter 4, pages 62-81, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Esteban Gómez & Andrés Murcia & Nancy Zamudio, 2011. "Financial Conditions Index: Early and Leading Indicator for Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República - ESPE, vol. 29(66), pages 174-220, December.
    3. Ponomarenko, Alexey, 2013. "Early warning indicators of asset price boom/bust cycles in emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 92-106.
    4. Kauko, Karlo, 2014. "How to foresee banking crises? A survey of the empirical literature," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 289-308.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset Price Bubbles; Early-Warning Indicators; Financial Crisis; Prudential Regulation;

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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