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Bubbles and Self-Fulfilling Crises

Author

Listed:
  • Edouard Challe

    (Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France, X - École polytechnique)

  • Xavier Ragot

    (Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Financial crises are often associated with an endogenous credit reversal followed by a fall in asset prices and serious disruptions in the financial sector. To account for this sequence of events, this paper constructs a model where excessive risk-taking by investors leads to a bubble in asset prices, and where the supply of credit to these investors is endogenous. We show that the interplay between excessive risk-taking and the endogeneity of credit may give rise to multiple equilibria associated with different levels of lending, asset prices, and output. Stochastic equilibria lead, with positive probability, to an inefficient liquidity dry-up, a market crash, and widespread failures by borrowers. The possibility of multiple equilibria and self-fulfilling crises is shown to be related to the severity of the risk-shifting problem in the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Edouard Challe & Xavier Ragot, 2011. "Bubbles and Self-Fulfilling Crises," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-00654655, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:pseptp:halshs-00654655
    DOI: 10.2202/1935-1690.2064
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00654655
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Challe, Edouard & Mojon, Benoit & Ragot, Xavier, 2013. "Equilibrium risk shifting and interest rate in an opaque financial system," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 117-133.
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    6. Petr VALOUCH & Jaroslav SEDLÁCEK & Alois KONECNÝ, 2012. "Analysis of the Behavior Mergermarket in the Conditions the Financial Crisis," Economics and Applied Informatics, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 1, pages 37-44.
    7. Dubecq, S. & Mojon, B. & Ragot, X., 2009. "Fuzzy Capital Requirements, Risk-Shifting and the Risk Taking Channel of Monetary Policy," Working papers 254, Banque de France.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Market imperfections; Self-fulfilling expectations; Financial crisis; Financial crises; Credit;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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