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Hot Money

  • V. V. Chari
  • Patrick J. Kehoe

Recent empirical work on financial crises documents that crises tend to occur when macroeconomic fundamentals are weak; but even after conditioning on an exhaustive list of fundamentals, a sizable random component to crises and associated capital flows remains. We develop a model of herd behavior consistent with these observations. Informational frictions together with standard debt default problems lead to volatile capital flows resembling hot money and financial crises. We show that repaying debt during difficult times identifies a government as financially resilient, enhances its reputation, and stabilizes capital flows. Bailing out governments deprives resilient countries of the opportunity to differentiate themselves from the nonresilient.

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Article provided by University of Chicago Press in its journal Journal of Political Economy.

Volume (Year): 111 (2003)
Issue (Month): 6 (December)
Pages: 1262-1292

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Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:v:111:y:2003:i:6:p:1262-1292
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  13. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sérgio, 2000. "On the Fundamentals of Self-Fulfilling Speculative Attacks," CEPR Discussion Papers 2565, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  17. Cole, Harold L & Dow, James & English, William B, 1995. "Default, Settlement, and Signalling: Lending Resumption in a Reputational Model of Sovereign Debt," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(2), pages 365-85, May.
  18. Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1999. "Currency and Banking Crises; The Early Warnings of Distress," IMF Working Papers 99/178, International Monetary Fund.
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  22. Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Assessing financial vulnerability, an early warning system for emerging markets: Introduction," MPRA Paper 13629, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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