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La estructura de la deuda pública en México: Lecciones y perspectivas

  • Fausto Hernández Trillo
  • Alejandro Villagómez Amezcua

Este artículo examina algunas de las hipótesis sobre las estrategias de deuda que a prioriparece haber seguido el gobierno mexicano, partiendo de un examen de la evolución ycomposición de la misma. Un aspecto interesante de este examen es que el nivel de la deudatotal con respecto al PIB en México era relativamente bajo (27 por ciento), sobre todocomparado con algunos países de la Unión Europea como Italia y Bélgica. Esto sugiere que lacomposición de la deuda y su perfil de vencimientos se convierten en un aspecto importante, particularmente en México. De este examen uno de los acertijos que saltan a la escena es si laexcesiva indización de la deuda interna al dólar durante 1994 fue una medida adecuada.

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Paper provided by Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department in its series Research Department Publications with number 3104.

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Date of creation: Jun 2000
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Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:3104
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  8. Cole, Harold L. & Kehoe, Timothy J., 1996. "A self-fulfilling model of Mexico's 1994-1995 debt crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 309-330, November.
  9. Carlos Sales-Sarrapy & Fernando Solis-Soberon & Alejandro Villagomez-Amez, 1996. "Pension System Reform: The Mexican Case," NBER Working Papers 5780, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  11. Kletzer, Kenneth M, 1984. "Asymmetries of Information and LDC Borrowing with Sovereign Risk," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(374), pages 287-307, June.
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  13. Missale, Alessandro, 1997. " Managing the Public Debt: The Optimal Taxation Approach," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(3), pages 235-65, September.
  14. Robert J. Barro, 1995. "Optimal Debt Management," NBER Working Papers 5327, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Sachs, Jeffrey & Tornell, Aaron & Velasco, Andres, 1996. "The Mexican peso crisis: Sudden death or death foretold?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 265-283, November.
  16. Alessandro Missale & Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1991. "The Debt Burden and Debt Maturity," NBER Working Papers 3944, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
  18. Hernandez-Trillo, Fausto, 1995. "A model-based estimation of the probability of default in sovereign credit markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 163-179, February.
  19. Hardouvelis, Gikas A., 1994. "The term structure spread and future changes in long and short rates in the G7 countries: Is there a puzzle?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 255-283, April.
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