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La estructura de la deuda pública en México: Lecciones y perspectivas

Listed author(s):
  • Fausto Hernández Trillo
  • Alejandro Villagómez Amezcua

Este artículo examina algunas de las hipótesis sobre las estrategias de deuda que a prioriparece haber seguido el gobierno mexicano, partiendo de un examen de la evolución ycomposición de la misma. Un aspecto interesante de este examen es que el nivel de la deudatotal con respecto al PIB en México era relativamente bajo (27 por ciento), sobre todocomparado con algunos países de la Unión Europea como Italia y Bélgica. Esto sugiere que lacomposición de la deuda y su perfil de vencimientos se convierten en un aspecto importante, particularmente en México. De este examen uno de los acertijos que saltan a la escena es si laexcesiva indización de la deuda interna al dólar durante 1994 fue una medida adecuada.

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File URL: http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-405&pub_file_name=pubR-405.pdf
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Paper provided by Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department in its series Research Department Publications with number 3104.

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Date of creation: Jun 2000
Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:3104
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  1. Carlos Sales-Sarrapy & Fernando Solis-Soberon & Alejandro Villagomez-Amezcua, 1998. "Pension System Reform: The Mexican Case," NBER Chapters, in: Privatizing Social Security, pages 135-175 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Hernandez-Trillo, Fausto, 1995. "A model-based estimation of the probability of default in sovereign credit markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 163-179, February.
  3. Pazarbasioglu, Ceyla & Otker, Inci, 1997. "Likelihood versus timing of speculative attacks: A case study of Mexico," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 837-845, April.
  4. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
  5. Alberto Alesina & Alessandro Prati & Guido Tabellini, 1989. "Public Confidence and Debt Management: A Model and A Case Study of Italy," NBER Working Papers 3135, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. John Y. Campbell, 1995. "Some Lessons from the Yield Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 129-152, Summer.
  7. Missale, Alessandro & Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1994. "The Debt Burden and Debt Maturity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 309-319, March.
  8. Atkeson, Andrew & Rios-Rull, Jose-Victor, 1996. "The balance of payments and borrowing constraints: An alternative view of the Mexican crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 331-349, November.
  9. Sachs, Jeffrey & Tornell, Aaron & Velasco, Andres, 1996. "The Mexican peso crisis: Sudden death or death foretold?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 265-283, November.
  10. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 1996. "Mexico's balance-of-payments crisis: a chronicle of a death foretold," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 235-264, November.
  11. Bohn, Henning, 1990. "Tax Smoothing with Financial Instruments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1217-1230, December.
  12. Giavazzi, Francesco & Pagano, Marco, 1989. "Confidence Crises and Public Debt Management," CEPR Discussion Papers 318, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309.
  14. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
  15. Sachs, Jeffrey & Tornell, Aaron & Velasco, Andres, 1995. "The Collapse of the Mexican Peso: What Have We Learned?," Working Papers 95-22, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  16. Michael P. Dooley, 1994. "A Retrospective on the Debt Crisis," NBER Working Papers 4963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Hardouvelis, Gikas A., 1994. "The term structure spread and future changes in long and short rates in the G7 countries: Is there a puzzle?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 255-283, April.
  18. Missale, Alessandro, 1997. " Managing the Public Debt: The Optimal Taxation Approach," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(3), pages 235-265, September.
  19. Goldfajn, Ilan, 2000. "Public Debt Indexation and Denomination: The Case of Brazil," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(1), pages 43-56, February.
  20. Kletzer, Kenneth M, 1984. "Asymmetries of Information and LDC Borrowing with Sovereign Risk," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(374), pages 287-307, June.
  21. Blackburn, Keith & Sola, Martin, 1993. " Speculative Currency Attacks and Balance of Payments Crises," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 119-144, June.
  22. Robert J. Barro, 1995. "Optimal Debt Management," NBER Working Papers 5327, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Cole, Harold L. & Kehoe, Timothy J., 1996. "A self-fulfilling model of Mexico's 1994-1995 debt crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 309-330, November.
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