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Asian Currency Crises: Do Fundamentals still Matter? A Markov-Switching Approach to Causes and Timing

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  • J L Ford
  • Bagus Santoso
  • N J Horsewood

Abstract

This paper examines the extent to which the Asian currency crises can be accounted for by the macroeconomic fundamentals suggested by first and second generation models, exclusive of the ideas of the third generation models. In doing so we extend the literature on the earlier models by using GARCH and Path Independent Markov-Switching GARCH models to explain the market pressure on the exchange rate, and the probability of the timing of a crisis. In addition, we account for appreciations of the exchange rate. Our empirical estimates for Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia and Thailand confirm that macroeconomic variables can explain the crises and the probability of occurrence at any time, dominating the conventionally used logit model.

Suggested Citation

  • J L Ford & Bagus Santoso & N J Horsewood, 2007. "Asian Currency Crises: Do Fundamentals still Matter? A Markov-Switching Approach to Causes and Timing," Discussion Papers 07-07, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    • Handle: RePEc:bir:birmec:07-07
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    Cited by:

    1. Unggul Heriqbaldi & Munawar Ismail & David Kaluge & Dwi Budi Santoso, 2014. "A Regime Switching Analysis Of Indonesia'S Exchange Market Pressure," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 59(02), pages 1-17.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Currency crisis; macroeconomic fundamentals; Markov-switching; volatile sate; stable state; probability of a crisis; logit model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General

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