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Financial crises after financial liberalization: Exceptional circumstances or structural weakness?

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  • Weller, Christian E.

Abstract

Recent studies have conjectured that there may be a link between financial liberalization and financial instability in emerging economies. Most of these studies, however, do not investigate whether emerging economies are becoming structurally more vulnerable to currency and banking crises. In this paper, we argue that emerging economies are systematically becoming more susceptible to both currency and banking crises after FL. Using data for 27 emerging economies from 1973 to the present, univariate and multivariate analyses indicate that the likelihood of currency crises and banking crises increase after FL. In particular, liberalization allows more liquidity to enter an emerging economy, which finds its way into productive and speculative projects. What is common to both types of crises is a significant increase in speculative financing, thereby increasing the chance for borrower default. Thus, the outflow of international capital becomes more likely, and we find that the chance of either type of crisis grows faster in response to changes in short-term loans after FL than before. Similarly, the reactions to overvalued currencies are at least similar in terms of increasing probabilities of crises in the case of banking crises, or greater in the case of currency crises after FL as compared to before FL. Further, our results show that after FL the chance of a currency crisis declines over time, while the chance of a banking crisis increases.

Suggested Citation

  • Weller, Christian E., 1999. "Financial crises after financial liberalization: Exceptional circumstances or structural weakness?," ZEI Working Papers B 15-1999, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zeiwps:b151999
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. International Monetary Fund, 1998. "The Relative Importance of Political and Economic Variables in Creditworthiness Ratings," IMF Working Papers 98/46, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    3. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Is There a Safe Passage to EMU? Evidence on Capital Controls and a Proposal," NBER Chapters,in: The Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets, pages 303-332 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Sara Calvo, 1996. "Capital Flows to Latin America: Is There Evidence of Contagion Effects?," Peterson Institute Press: Chapters,in: Guillermo A. Calvo & Morris Goldstein & Eduard Hochreiter (ed.), Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets After the Mexican Crisis, pages 151-171 Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    6. Nadeem Ul Haque & Manmohan S. Kumar & Nelson Mark & Donald J. Mathieson, 1996. "The Economic Content of Indicators of Developing Country Creditworthiness," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(4), pages 688-724, December.
    7. Bernd Schnatz, 2000. "Speculative attacks in emerging markets: The role of macroeconomic fundamentals," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;German National Library of Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 35(2), pages 81-89, March.
    8. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Emerging economies; Financial liberalization; financial instability; currency crises; banking crises;

    JEL classification:

    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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