Financial Crises After Financial Liberalisation: Exceptional Circumstances or Structural Weakness?
In this article, I argue that emerging economies are systematically becoming more susceptible to both currency and banking crises after financial liberalisation (FL). Using data for 27 emerging economies from 1973 to 1998, univariate and multivariate analyses indicate that the likelihood of currency crises and banking crises increase after FL. In particular, liberalisation allows more liquidity to enter an emerging economy, which finds its way into productive and speculative projects. What is common to both types of crises is a significant increase in speculative financing, thereby increasing the chance for borrower default. Thus, the outflow of international capital becomes more likely. The chance of a crisis occurring in response to changes in short-term loans is greater after FL than before. Similarly, the chance of a currency crisis occurring following a currency overvaluation is larger after FL than before. In comparison, the likelihood of a banking crisis occurring in response to an overvalued currency remains the same. Finally, the results show that the chance of a currency crisis declines over time, while the chance of a banking crisis increases after FL.
Volume (Year): 38 (2001)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/FJDS20|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/FJDS20|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- International Monetary Fund, 1996.
"The Economic Content of Indicators of Developing Country Creditworthiness,"
IMF Working Papers
96/9, International Monetary Fund.
- Nadeem Ul Haque & Manmohan S. Kumar & Nelson Mark & Donald J. Mathieson, 1996. "The Economic Content of Indicators of Developing Country Creditworthiness," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(4), pages 688-724, December.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996.
"Currency crashes in emerging markets: an empirical treatment,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
534, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
- Calvo, Sara & Reinhart, Carmen, 1996.
"Capital flows to Latin America : Is there evidence of contagion effects?,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
1619, The World Bank.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Sara Calvo, 1996. "Capital Flows to Latin America: Is There Evidence of Contagion Effects?," Peterson Institute Press: Chapters, in: Guillermo A. Calvo & Morris Goldstein & Eduard Hochreiter (ed.), Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets After the Mexican Crisis, pages 151-171 Peterson Institute for International Economics.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Sara, 1996. "Capital Flows to Latin America: Is There Evidence of Contagion Effects?”," MPRA Paper 7124, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999.
"The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems,"
14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000.
"Las crisis gemelas: las causas de los problemas bancarios y de balanza de pagos
[The twin crises: Te causes of banking and balance of payments problems]," MPRA Paper 13842, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997.
"Leading indicators of currency crises,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
1852, The World Bank.
- Bernd Schnatz, 2000. "Speculative attacks in emerging markets: The role of macroeconomic fundamentals," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 81-89, March.
- Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1996.
"Is There a Safe Passage to EMU? Evidence on Capital Controls and a Proposal,"
in: The Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets, pages 303-332
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barry Eichengreen, Andrew K. Rose, and Charles Wyplosz., 1995. "Is There a Safe Passage to EMU? Evidence on Capital Controls and a Proposal," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C95-047, University of California at Berkeley.
- Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1994. "Is There a Safe Passage to EMU? Evidence on Capital Controls and a Proposal," CEPR Discussion Papers 1061, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- International Monetary Fund, 1998. "The Relative Importance of Political and Economic Variables in Creditworthiness Ratings," IMF Working Papers 98/46, International Monetary Fund.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:jdevst:v:38:y:2001:i:1:p:98-127. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.