Is There a Safe Passage to EMU? Evidence on Capital Controls and a Proposal
This paper provides evidence on the effects of capital controls. We show that controls have been associated with significant differences in macroeconomic behaviour, especially in monetary policy. While they have not prevented speculative attacks, they have provided the breathing space needed to organize orderly realignments. We also provide evidence on the channels through which speculative attacks operate, showing that bank lending to non-residents is a key transmission mechanism. We conclude with a discussion of measures that mimic some of the effects of controls as a way of easing the transition to European Monetary Union. Non-interest-bearing deposit requirements on lending to non-residents are proposed as a third-best route to monetary union.
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- Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1994.
"Speculative Attacks on Pegged Exchange Rates: An Empirical Exploration with Special Reference to the European Monetary System,"
NBER Working Papers
4898, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barry Eichengreen, Andrew K. Rose, and Charles Wyplosz., 1995. "Speculative Attacks on Pegged Exchange Rates: An Empirical Exploration with Special Reference to the European Monetary System," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C95-046, University of California at Berkeley.
- Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1994. "Speculative Attacks on Pegged Exchange Rates: An Empirical Exploration with Special Reference to the European Monetary System," CEPR Discussion Papers 1060, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1995. "Speculative attacks on pegged exchange rates: an empirical exploration with special reference to the European Monetary System," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 95-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- James Tobin, 1978.
"A Proposal for International Monetary Reform,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
506, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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