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Is There a Safe Passage to EMU? Evidence on Capital Controls and a Proposal

In: The Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets

  • Barry Eichengreen
  • Andrew K. Rose
  • Charles Wyplosz

This paper provides evidence on the effects of capital controls. We show that controls have been associated with significant differences in macroeconomic behavior, especially in monetary policy. While they have not prevented speculative attacks, they have provided the breathing space needed to organized orderly realignments. We also provide evidence on the channels through which speculative attacks operate, showing that bank lending to nonresidents is a key transmission mechanism. We conclude with a discussion of measures that mimic some of the effects of controls as a way of easing the transition to European Monetary Union. Non-interest-bearing deposit requirements on lending to nonresidents are proposed as a thirdbest route to monetary union.

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This chapter was published in:
  • Jeffrey A. Frankel & Giampaolo Galli & Alberto Giovannini, 1996. "The Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number fran96-1.
  • This item is provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Chapters with number 11369.
    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:11369
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    1. Barry Eichengreen & Charles Wyplosz, 1993. "The Unstable EMS," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 24(1), pages 51-144.
    2. Ozkan, F Gulcin & Sutherland, Alan, 1994. "A Model of the ERM Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 879, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K. & Wyplosz, Charles, 1995. "Speculative Attacks on Pegged Exchange Rates: An Empirical Exploration with Special Reference to the European Monetary System," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233397, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
    4. James Tobin, 1978. "A Proposal for International Monetary Reform," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 4(3-4), pages 153-159, Jul/Oct.
    5. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1986. "Rational and Self-fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 72-81, March.
    6. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
    7. Kenneth A. Froot & Kenneth Rogoff, 1991. "The EMS, the EMU, and the Transition to a Common Currency," NBER Working Papers 3684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Eichengreen, Barry & Tobin, James & Wyplosz, Charles, 1994. "Two Cases for Sand in the Wheels of International Finance," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233396, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
    9. Daniel Gros, 1987. "The Effectiveness of Capital Controls: Implications for Monetary Autonomy in the Presence of Incomplete Market Separation," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 34(4), pages 621-642, December.
    10. Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 4640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Wyplosz, Charles, 1986. "Capital controls and balance of payments crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 167-179, June.
    12. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    13. Dixit, Avinash, 1991. "Irreversible Investment with Price Ceilings," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 541-57, June.
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