Financial fragility or what went right and what could go wrong in central European banking?
Despite the fact that banks in Central Europe are burdened by extraordinarily high bad loan ratios, the recent financial crisis in South East Asia and Russia, has not led to a massive failure of banks in the region. In this paper, we study economic trends and policies that may have helped to insulate CEECs from international financial contagion. Answering what went right over the past few years may not only help to further positive developments, but it may also highlight possible weaknesses that could result in future financial instabilities in the banking sectors of CEECs. Using data available from the IMF, and the BIS for nine Central European economies (Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovak Republic, and Slovenia), our results indicate that an economic constellation unique to the early transition period rather than deliberate policy decisions have stabilized the CEECs. Specifically, the lack of recent banking crisis can be attributed to a lack of overly optimistic credit expansion, despite several years of real economic growth, to underdeveloped asset markets, and to a decline of trade relations with the former Soviet Union. Future problems may arise as banks are beginning to extend credit more to an expanding real sector than in the past, as asset markets become more developed, or as export growth to the EU may decline with European growth slowing down. Thus, improvements in bank regulation and bank supervision should receive a high priority among policy makers in CEECs.
|Date of creation:||1999|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Walter-Flex-Straße 3, D - 53113 Bonn|
Web page: http://www.zei.de/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998.
"Leading Indicators of Currency Crises,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
- Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1997. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 97/79, International Monetary Fund.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," MPRA Paper 6981, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997. "Leading indicators of currency crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1852, The World Bank.
- Daniel C. Hardy & Ashok Kumar Lahiri, 1992. "Bank Insolvency and Stabilization in Eastern Europe," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(4), pages 778-800, December.
- John P. Bonin & KÃ¡lmÃ¡n Mizsei & IstvÃ¡n P. SzÃ©kely & Paul Wachtel, 1998. "Banking in Transition Economies," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1286.
- Christian Weller, 2000. "Financial Liberalization, Multinational Banks and Credit Supply: The case of Poland," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 193-211.
- Weller, Christian E., 1999. "Financial liberalization, multinational banks and credit supply: The case of Poland," ZEI Working Papers B 10-1999, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000.
"Las crisis gemelas: las causas de los problemas bancarios y de balanza de pagos
[The twin crises: Te causes of banking and balance of payments problems]," MPRA Paper 13842, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Christian Weller, 2001. "The Finance-Investment Link in a Transition Economy: Evidence For Poland From Panel Data," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 43(1), pages 31-52, April.
- Weller, Christian E., 1999. "The finance-investment link in a transition economy: Evidence for Poland from panel data," ZEI Working Papers B 04-1999, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
- IstvÃ¡n Ã bel & Pierre L. Siklos & IstvÃ¡n P. SzÃ©kely, 1998. "Money and Finance in the Transition to a Market Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 830.
- Garber, Peter M, 1996. "Managing Risks to Financial Markets from Volatile Capital Flows: The Role of Prudential Regulation," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(3), pages 183-195, July.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: an empirical treatment," International Finance Discussion Papers 534, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- International Monetary Fund, 1992. "Bank Insolvency and Stabilization in Eastern Europe," IMF Working Papers 92/9, International Monetary Fund.
- Herman W. Hoen, 1998. "The Transformation of Economic Systems in Central Europe," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 848.
- Fleming, Alex & Talley, Samuel, 1996. "The Latvian banking crisis : lessons learned," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1590, The World Bank.
- Harald A Benink & David T Llewellyn, "undated". "Deregulation and Financial Fragility: A Case Study of the UK and Scandinavia," Research Papers 94/4, CENTRE FOR RESEARCH IN EUROPEAN ECONOMICS AND FINANCE (CREEF).
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Fabrizio Coricelli, 1993. "Output Collapse in Eastern Europe: The Role of Credit," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 32-52, March.
- Guillermo Calvo & Fabrizio Coricelli, 1992. "Output Collapse in Eastern Europe; The Role of Credit," IMF Working Papers 92/64, International Monetary Fund.
- Weller, Christian E. & Scher, Mark J., 1999. "Multinational banks and development finance," ZEI Working Papers B 16-1999, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:zeiwps:b131999. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.