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Mapping the state of financial stability

  • Sarlin, Peter
  • Peltonen, Tuomas A.

The paper uses the Self-Organizing Map for mapping the state of financial stability and visualizing the sources of systemic risks as well as for predicting systemic financial crises. The Self-Organizing Financial Stability Map (SOFSM) enables a two-dimensional representation of a multidimensional financial stability space that allows disentangling the individual sources impacting on systemic risks. The SOFSM can be used to monitor macro-financial vulnerabilities by locating a country in the financial stability cycle: being it either in the pre-crisis, crisis, post-crisis or tranquil state. In addition, the SOFSM performs better than or equally well as a logit model in classifying in-sample data and predicting out-of-sample the global financial crisis that started in 2007. Model robustness is tested by varying the thresholds of the models, the policymaker’s preferences, and the forecasting horizons. JEL Classification: E44, E58, F01, F37, G01

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1382.

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Date of creation: Sep 2011
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20111382
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  1. Illing, Mark & Liu, Ying, 2006. "Measuring financial stress in a developed country: An application to Canada," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 243-265, October.
  2. Cardarelli, Roberto & Elekdag, Selim & Lall, Subir, 2011. "Financial stress and economic contractions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 78-97, June.
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  7. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
  8. Bussière, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2002. "Towards a new early warning system of financial crises," Working Paper Series 0145, European Central Bank.
  9. Andrew Berg & Eduardo Borensztein & Catherine A. Pattillo, 2004. "Assessing Early Warning Systems: How Have they Worked in Practice?," IMF Working Papers 04/52, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Sarlin, Peter & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2011. "Mapping the State of Financial Stability," BOFIT Discussion Papers 18/2011, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  11. Philip Lowe & Claudio Borio, 2002. "Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus," BIS Working Papers 114, Bank for International Settlements.
  12. Claudio E. V. Borio & Philip Lowe, 2004. "Securing sustainable price stability: should credit come back from the wilderness?," BIS Working Papers 157, Bank for International Settlements.
  13. Alessi, Lucia & Detken, Carsten, 2009. "'Real time'early warning indicators for costly asset price boom/bust cycles: a role for global liquidity," Working Paper Series 1039, European Central Bank.
  14. Lo Duca, Marco & Peltonen, Tuomas, 2011. "Macro-financial vulnerabilities and future financial stress - Assessing systemic risks and predicting systemic events," BOFIT Discussion Papers 2/2011, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  15. Bystrom, Hans N. E., 2004. "The market's view on the probability of banking sector failure: cross-country comparisons," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 419-438, December.
  16. Sarlin, Peter, 2013. "On policymakers’ loss functions and the evaluation of early warning systems," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 1-7.
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  19. repec:ecb:ecbwps:20111426 is not listed on IDEAS
  20. Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2006. "Are emerging market currency crises predictable? A test," Working Paper Series 0571, European Central Bank.
  21. Berg, Andrew & Pattillo, Catherine, 1999. "Predicting currency crises:: The indicators approach and an alternative," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 561-586, August.
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  24. Stephan Danninger & Irina Tytell & Ravi Balakrishnan & Selim Elekdag, 2009. "The Transmission of Financial Stress From Advanced to Emerging Economies," IMF Working Papers 09/133, International Monetary Fund.
  25. Jaume Puig & Ken Miyajima & Rebecca McCaughrin & Peter Dattels, 2010. "Can You Map Global Financial Stability?," IMF Working Papers 10/145, International Monetary Fund.
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