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A new database for financial crises in European countries

Author

Listed:
  • Lo Duca, Marco
  • Koban, Anne
  • Basten, Marisa
  • Bengtsson, Elias
  • Klaus, Benjamin
  • Kusmierczyk, Piotr
  • Lang, Jan Hannes
  • Detken, Carsten
  • Peltonen, Tuomas A.

Abstract

This paper presents a new database for financial crises in European countries, which serves as an important step towards establishing a common ground for macroprudential oversight and policymaking in the EU. The database focuses on providing precise chronological definitions of crisis periods to support the calibration of models in macroprudential analysis. An important contribution of this work is the identification of financial crises by combining a quantitative approach based on a financial stress index with expert judgement from national and European authorities. Key innovations of this database are (i) the inclusion of qualitative information about events and policy responses, (ii) the introduction of a broad set of non-exclusive categories to classify events, and (iii) a distinction between event and post-event adjustment periods. The paper explains the two-step approach for identifying crises and other key choices in the construction of the dataset. Moreover, stylised facts about the systemic crises in the dataset are presented together with estimations of output losses and fiscal costs associated with these crises. A preliminary assessment of the performance of standard early warning indicators based on the new crises dataset confirms findings in the literature that multivariate models can improve compared to univariate signalling models. JEL Classification: G01, E44, E58, E60, H12

Suggested Citation

  • Lo Duca, Marco & Koban, Anne & Basten, Marisa & Bengtsson, Elias & Klaus, Benjamin & Kusmierczyk, Piotr & Lang, Jan Hannes & Detken, Carsten & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2017. "A new database for financial crises in European countries," Occasional Paper Series 194, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2017194
    Note: 452517
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpops/ecb.op194.en.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Beutel, Johannes & List, Sophia & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2018. "An evaluation of early warning models for systemic banking crises: Does machine learning improve predictions?," Discussion Papers 48/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Mathias Drehmann & Mikael Juselius & Anton Korinek, 2018. "Going With the Flows: New Borrowing, Debt Service and the Transmission of Credit Booms," NBER Working Papers 24549, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. repec:bis:bisqtr:1803e is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Christopher F Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Bing Xu, 2017. "The Impact of Uncertainty on Financial Institutions," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 939, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 20 Sep 2018.
    5. Ludovic Cales & Apostolos Chalkis & Ioannis Z. Emiris & Vissarion Fisikopoulos, 2018. "Practical volume computation of structured convex bodies, and an application to modeling portfolio dependencies and financial crises," Papers 1803.05861, arXiv.org.
    6. Jorge E. Galán & Javier Mencía, 2018. "Empirical assessment of alternative structural methods for identifying cyclical systemic risk in Europe," Working Papers 1825, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    7. Thibaut Duprey & Timothy Grieder & Dylan Hogg, 2017. "Recent Evolution of Canada’s Credit-to-GDP Gap: Measurement and Interpretation," Staff Analytical Notes 17-25, Bank of Canada.
    8. Lang, Jan Hannes & Welz, Peter, 2018. "Semi-structural credit gap estimation," Working Paper Series 2194, European Central Bank.
    9. repec:ris:jofitr:1621 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Corsetti, G. & Eichengreen, B. & Hale, G. & Tallman, E., 2019. "The Euro Crisis in the Mirror of the EMS: How Tying Odysseus to the Mast Avoided the Sirens but Led Him to Charybdis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1914, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    11. repec:eee:finsta:v:36:y:2018:i:c:p:66-81 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Kockerols, Thore & Kok, Christoffer, 2019. "Leaning against the wind: macroprudential policy and the financial cycle," Working Paper Series 2223, European Central Bank.
    13. Jianu, Ionuț, 2018. "The Impact of Economic and Financial Crises on Unemployment Rate in European Union," EconStor Conference Papers 194294, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    14. Lang, Jan Hannes & Izzo, Cosimo & Fahr, Stephan & Ruzicka, Josef, 2019. "Anticipating the bust: a new cyclical systemic risk indicator to assess the likelihood and severity of financial crises," Occasional Paper Series 219, European Central Bank.
    15. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Eichengreen, Barry & Hale, Galina B & Tallmann, Eric, 2019. "The Euro Crisis in the Mirror of the EMS," CEPR Discussion Papers 13522, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Lyons, Paul & Nevin, Ciarán & Shaw, Frances, 2019. "Real-estate concentration in the Irish banking system," Financial Stability Notes 4/FS/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
    17. Cabral, Inês & Detken, Carsten & Fell, John & Henry, Jérôme & Hiebert, Paul & Kapadia, Sujit & Pires, Fatima & Salleo, Carmelo & Constâncio, Vítor & Nicoletti Altimari, Sergio, 2019. "Macroprudential policy at the ECB: Institutional framework, strategy, analytical tools and policies," Occasional Paper Series 227, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    central bank statistics; crises database; early warning models; financial crises; macroprudential;

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management

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