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A new database for financial crises in European countries

Author

Listed:
  • Lo Duca, Marco
  • Koban, Anne
  • Basten, Marisa
  • Bengtsson, Elias
  • Klaus, Benjamin
  • Kusmierczyk, Piotr
  • Lang, Jan Hannes
  • Detken, Carsten
  • Peltonen, Tuomas

Abstract

This paper presents a new database for financial crises in European countries, which serves as an important step towards establishing a common ground for macroprudential oversight and policymaking in the EU. The database focuses on providing precise chronological definitions of crisis periods to support the calibration of models in macroprudential analysis. An important contribution of this work is the identification of financial crises by combining a quantitative approach based on a financial stress index with expert judgement from national and European authorities. Key innovations of this database are (i) the inclusion of qualitative information about events and policy responses, (ii) the introduction of a broad set of non-exclusive categories to classify events, and (iii) a distinction between event and post-event adjustment periods. The paper explains the two-step approach for identifying crises and other key choices in the construction of the dataset. Moreover, stylised facts about the systemic crises in the dataset are presented together with estimations of output losses and fiscal costs associated with these crises. A preliminary assessment of the performance of standard early warning indicators based on the new crises dataset confirms findings in the literature that multivariate models can improve compared to univariate signalling models. JEL Classification: G01, E44, E58, E60, H12

Suggested Citation

  • Lo Duca, Marco & Koban, Anne & Basten, Marisa & Bengtsson, Elias & Klaus, Benjamin & Kusmierczyk, Piotr & Lang, Jan Hannes & Detken, Carsten & Peltonen, Tuomas, 2017. "A new database for financial crises in European countries," Occasional Paper Series 194, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2017194
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Duprey, Thibaut & Klaus, Benjamin & Peltonen, Tuomas, 2017. "Dating systemic financial stress episodes in the EU countries," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 30-56.
    2. Beirne, John & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2013. "The pricing of sovereign risk and contagion during the European sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 60-82.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 466-472, May.
    4. De Santis, Roberto A., 2012. "The Euro area sovereign debt crisis: safe haven, credit rating agencies and the spread of the fever from Greece, Ireland and Portugal," Working Paper Series 1419, European Central Bank.
    5. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: Empirical Indicators," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233424, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mathias Drehmann & Mikael Juselius & Anton Korinek, 2018. "Going With the Flows: New Borrowing, Debt Service and the Transmission of Credit Booms," NBER Working Papers 24549, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. repec:bis:bisqtr:1803e is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Christopher F Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Bing Xu, 2017. "Uncertainty Effects on the Financial Sector: International Evidence," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 939, Boston College Department of Economics.
    4. repec:eee:finsta:v:36:y:2018:i:c:p:66-81 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Ludovic Cales & Apostolos Chalkis & Ioannis Z. Emiris & Vissarion Fisikopoulos, 2018. "Practical volume computation of structured convex bodies, and an application to modeling portfolio dependencies and financial crises," Papers 1803.05861, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    central bank statistics; crises database; early warning models; financial crises; macroprudential;

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management

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