Macro-financial vulnerabilities and future financial stress: assessing systemic risks and predicting systemic events
This paper develops a framework for assessing systemic risks and for predicting (out-of-sample) systemic events, i.e. periods of extreme financial instability with potential real costs. We test the ability of a wide range of “stand alone” and composite indicators in predicting systemic events and evaluate them by taking into account policy makers’ preferences between false alarms and missing signals. Our results highlight the importance of considering jointly various indicators in a multivariate framework. We find that taking into account jointly domestic and global macrofinancial vulnerabilities greatly improves the performance of discrete choice models in forecasting systemic events. Our framework shows a good out-of-sample performance in predicting the last financial crisis. Finally, our model would have issued an early warning signal for the United States in 2006 Q2, 5 quarters before the emergence of money markets tensions in August 2007. JEL Classification: E44, E58, F01, F37, G01
|Date of creation:||Mar 2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +49 69 1344 0
Fax: +49 69 1344 6000
Web page: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Michael D. Bordo & Michael J. Dueker & David C. Wheelock, 2000.
"Aggregate Price Shocks and Financial Instability: An Historical Analysis,"
NBER Historical Working Papers
0125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael D. Bordo & Michael J. Dueker & David C. Wheelock, 2002. "Aggregate Price Shocks and Financial Instability: A Historical Analysis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(4), pages 521-538, October.
- Michael D. Bordo & Michael J. Dueker & David C. Wheelock, 2001. "Aggregate price shocks and financial instability: a historical analysis," Working Papers 2000-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Michael D. Bordo & Michael J. Dueker & David C. Wheelock, 2000. "Aggregate Price Shocks and Financial Instability: An Historical Analysis," NBER Working Papers 7652, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul, 1998.
"Leading Indicators of Currency Crises,"
6981, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Bussiere, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2006.
"Towards a new early warning system of financial crises,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 953-973, October.
- Bussière, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2002. "Towards a new early warning system of financial crises," Working Paper Series 0145, European Central Bank.
- Fratzscher, Marcel & Matthieu Bussiere, 2003. "Towards A New Early Warning System of Financial Crises," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 81, Royal Economic Society.
- Fabian Valencia & Luc Laeven, 2008. "Systemic Banking Crises; A New Database," IMF Working Papers 08/224, International Monetary Fund.
- Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2009.
"Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles and Financial Crises, 1870-2008,"
NBER Working Papers
15512, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1029-61, April.
- Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M., 2009. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," CEPR Discussion Papers 7570, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Alessi, Lucia & Detken, Carsten, 2009. "'Real time'early warning indicators for costly asset price boom/bust cycles: a role for global liquidity," Working Paper Series 1039, European Central Bank.
- Bussiere, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2008. "Low probability, high impact: Policy making and extreme events," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 111-121.
- Miroslav Misina & Greg Tkacz, 2009. "Credit, Asset Prices, and Financial Stress," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(4), pages 95-122, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20111311. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Official Publications)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.