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Measuring financial stress in transition economies

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  • Cevik, Emrah Ismail
  • Dibooglu, Sel
  • Kutan, Ali M.

Abstract

This study constructs a financial stress index for Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Russia and examines the relationship between financial stress and economic activity. The financial stress index incorporates banking sector fragility, time varying stock market return volatility, sovereign debt spreads, an exchange market pressure index, and trade credit. These variables seem to capture key aspects of financial stress in sample countries as the index peaks at known financial crises in these countries. We then examine the relationship between financial stress and economic activity. Impulse response functions based on bivariate VARs show a significant relationship between financial stress and some measures of economic activity. Overall, the constructed financial stress index provides valuable information on the state of the economy and economic activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Cevik, Emrah Ismail & Dibooglu, Sel & Kutan, Ali M., 2013. "Measuring financial stress in transition economies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 597-611.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:9:y:2013:i:4:p:597-611
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2012.10.001
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    Cited by:

    1. Raputsoane, Leroi, 2018. "Monetary policy reaction function pre and post the global financial crisis," MPRA Paper 84866, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Vašíček, Bořek & Žigraiová, Diana & Hoeberichts, Marco & Vermeulen, Robert & Šmídková, Kateřina & de Haan, Jakob, 2017. "Leading indicators of financial stress: New evidence," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 240-257.
    3. László Békési & Lorant Kaszab & Szabolcs Szentmihályi, 2017. "The EAGLE model for Hungary - a global perspective," MNB Working Papers 2017/7, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    4. Leroi RAPUTSOANE, 2015. "The lean versus clean debate and monetary policy in South Africa," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 467-480, December.
    5. Robert Vermeulen & Marco Hoeberichts & Bořek Vašíček & Diana Žigraiová & Kateřina Šmídková & Jakob Haan, 2015. "Financial Stress Indices and Financial Crises," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 383-406, July.
    6. repec:mbr:jmonec:v:9:y:2014:i:2:p:117-137 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Jauhari Dahalan & Hussin Bin Abdullah & Mohammed Umar, 2016. "Measuring Financial Stress Index for Malaysian Economy," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(3), pages 942-947.
    8. Apostolakis, George & Papadopoulos, Athanasios P., 2015. "Financial stress spillovers across the banking, securities and foreign exchange markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 1-21.
    9. Shijaku, Gerti, 2016. "Does Primary Sovereignty Risk Matter for Bank Fragility? Evidence from Albanian Banking System," MPRA Paper 79097, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. repec:fau:fauart:v:67:y:2017:i:6:p:492-511 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Costas Milas, 2014. "Financial Stress and the Impact of Public Debt on UK Growth in High versus Low-Growth Regimes: 1850-2013," Working Paper series 13_14, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    12. Maciej Krzak & Grzegorz Poniatowski & Katarzyna Wasik, 2014. "Measuring financial stress and economic sensitivity in CEE countries," CASE Network Reports 0117, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    13. Lawless, Martina & O’Connell, Brian & O’Toole, Conor, 2015. "SME recovery following a financial crisis: Does debt overhang matter?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 45-59.
    14. repec:eee:ecosys:v:41:y:2017:i:1:p:122-138 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Dovern, Jonas & van Roye, Björn, 2013. "International transmission of financial stress: Evidence from a GVAR," Kiel Working Papers 1844, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    16. Dovern, Jonas & van Roye, Björn, 2014. "International transmission and business-cycle effects of financial stress," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 1-17.
    17. Cevik, Emrah I. & Dibooglu, Sel & Kenc, Turalay, 2016. "Financial stress and economic activity in some emerging Asian economies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 127-139.
    18. repec:eee:ecmode:v:68:y:2018:i:c:p:96-116 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. repec:eco:journ1:2017-02-31 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial crises; Financial pressure; Economic indicators; Business cycles; Transition economies;

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation

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