IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Measuring financial stress in transition economies

  • Cevik, Emrah Ismail
  • Dibooglu, Sel
  • Kutan, Ali M.

This study constructs a financial stress index for Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Russia and examines the relationship between financial stress and economic activity. The financial stress index incorporates banking sector fragility, time varying stock market return volatility, sovereign debt spreads, an exchange market pressure index, and trade credit. These variables seem to capture key aspects of financial stress in sample countries as the index peaks at known financial crises in these countries. We then examine the relationship between financial stress and economic activity. Impulse response functions based on bivariate VARs show a significant relationship between financial stress and some measures of economic activity. Overall, the constructed financial stress index provides valuable information on the state of the economy and economic activity.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1572308912000617
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Financial Stability.

Volume (Year): 9 (2013)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 597-611

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:9:y:2013:i:4:p:597-611
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jfstabil

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Costas Karfakis & Demetrios Moschos, 2004. "Predicting Currency Crises: Evidence from Two Transition Economies," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 40(1), pages 95-103, January.
  2. Joshua Aizenman & Gurnain Kaur Pasricha, 2011. "Determinants of Financial Stress and Recovery during the Great Recession," Working Papers 11-24, Bank of Canada.
  3. Girton, Lance & Roper, Don, 1977. "A Monetary Model of Exchange Market Pressure Applied to the Postwar Canadian Experience," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 537-48, September.
  4. Alun H. Thomas, 2009. "Financial Crises and Emerging Market Trade," IMF Staff Position Notes 2009/04, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Melvin, Michael & Taylor, Mark P, 2009. "The Crisis in the Foreign Exchange Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 7472, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Abdul Abiad, 2003. "Early Warning Systems; A Survey and a Regime-Switching Approach," IMF Working Papers 03/32, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Craig S. Hakkio & William R. Keeton, 2009. "Financial stress: what is it, how can it be measured, and why does it matter?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 5-50.
  8. Troy Davig & Craig Hakkio, 2010. "What is the effect of financial stress on economic activity," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 35-62.
  9. Bussiere, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2006. "Towards a new early warning system of financial crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 953-973, October.
  10. Ugo Albertazzi & Leonardo Gambacorta, 2006. "Bank profitability and the business cycle," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 601, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  11. Jaromír Baxa & Roman Horváth & Borek Vasícek, 2011. "Monetary Policy Rules and Financial Stress: Does Financial Instability Matter for Monetary," Working Papers wpdea1101, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.
  12. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May.
  13. Elke Hanschel & Pierre Monnin, 2005. "Measuring and forecasting stress in the banking sector: evidence from Switzerland," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 431-49 Bank for International Settlements.
  14. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, 05.
  15. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
  16. Gonzalo C. Pastor & Tatiana Damjanovic, 2001. "The Russian Financial Crisis and its Consequences for Central Asia," IMF Working Papers 01/169, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1998. "Currency and banking crises: the early warnings of distress," International Finance Discussion Papers 629, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  18. Rachel Male, 2011. "Developing Country Business Cycles: Characterizing the Cycle," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 47(0), pages 20-39, May.
  19. Stijn Claessens & M.Ayhan Köse & Marco E.Terrones, 2008. "Financial Stress and Economic Activity," Journal of BRSA Banking and Financial Markets, Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency, vol. 2(2), pages 11-24.
  20. Cardarelli, Roberto & Elekdag, Selim & Lall, Subir, 2011. "Financial stress and economic contractions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 78-97, June.
  21. Lo Duca, Marco & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2011. "Macro-financial vulnerabilities and future financial stress: assessing systemic risks and predicting systemic events," Working Paper Series 1311, European Central Bank.
  22. Illing, Mark & Liu, Ying, 2006. "Measuring financial stress in a developed country: An application to Canada," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 243-265, October.
  23. Jacobson, Tor & Linde, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper, 2005. "Exploring interactions between real activity and the financial stance," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 308-341, April.
  24. Michael Gapen & Dale Gray & Cheng Hoon Lim & Yingbin Xiao, 2008. "Measuring and Analyzing Sovereign Risk with Contingent Claims," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(1), pages 109-148, April.
  25. Shen, Chung-Hua & Chen, Chien-Fu, 2008. "Causality between banking and currency fragilities: A dynamic panel model," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 85-101.
  26. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
  27. Márcio Valério Ronci, 2004. "Trade Finance and Trade Flows; Panel Data Evidence From 10 Crises," IMF Working Papers 04/225, International Monetary Fund.
  28. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  29. Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1998. "Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 885-905, November.
  30. Miroslav Misina & Greg Tkacz, 2009. "Credit, Asset Prices, and Financial Stress," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(4), pages 95-122, December.
  31. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
  32. Van Horen, Neeltje, 2007. "Customer Market Power and the Provision of Trade Credit; Evidence from Eastern Europe and Central Asia," MPRA Paper 3378, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  33. Kristina Kittelmann & Marcel Tirpak & Rainer Schweickert & Lúcio Vinhas de Souza, 2006. "From Transition Crises to Macroeconomic Stability? Lessons from a Crises Early Warning System for Eastern European and CIS Countries," Kiel Working Papers 1269, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  34. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
  35. R. Gaston Gelos & Ratna Sahay, 2001. "Financial market spillovers in transition economies," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 9(1), pages 53-86, March.
  36. repec:ecb:ecbwps:20111426 is not listed on IDEAS
  37. Pietro Garibaldi & Nada Mora & Ratna Sahay & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2001. "What Moves Capital to Transition Economies?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(4), pages 6.
  38. Christian Keller & Peter Kunzel & Marcos Souto, 2007. "Measuring Sovereign Risk in Turkey; An Application of the Contingent Claims Approach," IMF Working Papers 07/233, International Monetary Fund.
  39. Iva Petrova & Michael G Papaioannou & Dimitri Bellas, 2010. "Determinants of Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads; Fundamentals Vs Financial Stress," IMF Working Papers 10/281, International Monetary Fund.
  40. Ravi Balakrishnan & Stephan Danninger & Selim Elekdag & Irina Tytell, 2011. "The Transmission of Financial Stress from Advanced to Emerging Economies," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 47(0), pages 40-68, May.
  41. Mari Avarmaa & Aaro Hazak & Kadri Männasoo, 2011. "Capital structure formation in multinational and local companies in the Baltic States," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 11(1), pages 125-146, July.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:9:y:2013:i:4:p:597-611. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.