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Predicting Currency Crises: Evidence from Two Transition Economies

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  • COSTAS KARFAKIS
  • DEMETRIOS MOSCHOS

Abstract

This paper investigates the role of fundamentals in the speculative episodes experienced by the Czech Republic and Poland during the 1990s. The evidence suggests that the currency crises of the two Central and Eastern European countries are significantly related to macroeconomic fundamentals. The analysis has implications for the design of macroeconomic policies in transition economies and for the sustainability of an exchange rate commitment.

Suggested Citation

  • Costas Karfakis & Demetrios Moschos, 2004. "Predicting Currency Crises: Evidence from Two Transition Economies," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 95-103, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:40:y:2004:i:1:p:95-103
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    Cited by:

    1. Kemme, David M. & Roy, Saktinil, 2006. "Real exchange rate misalignment: Prelude to crisis?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 207-230, October.
    2. Cevik, Emrah Ismail & Dibooglu, Sel & Kutan, Ali M., 2013. "Measuring financial stress in transition economies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 597-611.

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